CAJ | 학술논문

元胞自动机模型是土地利用演变模拟与预测的重要工具.文章基于组件式GIS平台SuperMap Objects,利用微软C#语言构建了一套土地利用演变元胞自动机模型仿真系统：LUCC-CA,用于城市土地利用演变的模拟与预测分析.该软件主要包括简单的数据预处理、模型数据输入、各种模型参数设定、模型运行控制、结果精度评价以及模型仿真结果输出等几部分功能.以广东省广州市花都区为例,利用LUCC-CA系统对花都区1995～2005年土地利用演变模拟进行了实证研究.通过精度分析得出2005年模拟结果与该年实际土地利用现状的平均符合度为75.23%.结果表明该模型系统能够较好地反应区域土地利用演变动态,可为相关研究提供参考.
원포자동궤모형시토지이용연변모의여예측적중요공구.문장기우조건식GIS평태SuperMap Objects,이용미연C#어언구건료일투토지이용연변원포자동궤모형방진계통：LUCC-CA,용우성시토지이용연변적모의여예측분석.해연건주요포괄간단적수거예처리、모형수거수입、각충모형삼수설정、모형운행공제、결과정도평개이급모형방진결과수출등궤부분공능.이광동성엄주시화도구위례,이용LUCC-CA계통대화도구1995～2005년토지이용연변모의진행료실증연구.통과정도분석득출2005년모의결과여해년실제토지이용현상적평균부합도위75.23%.결과표명해모형계통능구교호지반응구역토지이용연변동태,가위상관연구제공삼고.
Cellular Automata Model is an important tool for modelling and forecasting the land use change in the region.This article developed cellular automata model software which is proposed to simulate and forecast the urban land use change.Based on the component GIS developkit named SuperMap Objects,the CA model is developed by using C Sharp programming language.The CA model software is composed of several function parts as follows： data preprocessing,model data input,model parameter setting,model running control,the evaluation of model results accuracy and model results output.Then,take Huadu District of Guangzhou city as an example,the simulation research of land use change from 1995 to 2005 was implemented by using LUCC-CA model software.The average simulation accuracy of simulation result in year 2005 is 75.23%.The research result shows that the LUCC-CA model can reflect the regional land use dynamic accurately.It can provide a reference for related research in geography cellular automata.