宁波大学学报：理工版
寧波大學學報：理工版
저파대학학보：리공판
Journal of Ningbo University(Natural Science and Engineering Edition)
2012年
3期
42-47
,共6页
指数增长模型%逻辑斯蒂模型%高阶函数模型%替代率%收支平衡
指數增長模型%邏輯斯蒂模型%高階函數模型%替代率%收支平衡
지수증장모형%라집사체모형%고계함수모형%체대솔%수지평형
exponential growth model%logistic growth model%higher order function model%rate of substitution%balance of revenue and expenditure
企业职工养老基金的收支平衡，关系到社会稳定和向老龄化社会的顺利过渡．利用微分方程、高阶函数建立了预测远期社会平均工资及职工在职时的工资模型，并经分析对比，选用与实际吻合较好的模型，以3种年龄段为例，计算分析了它们的养老金、替代率、收支等情况．结果表明：职工年平均工资高、退休年龄迟于60岁、缴费年数多于20年，则替代率高，能接近目标值；若基础养老金按现收现付方式管理，且按目前法定年龄退休，则缺口较大．因此，要从政策与管理等多方面采取有效措施，保障养老金保险制度顺利实施．
企業職工養老基金的收支平衡，關繫到社會穩定和嚮老齡化社會的順利過渡．利用微分方程、高階函數建立瞭預測遠期社會平均工資及職工在職時的工資模型，併經分析對比，選用與實際吻閤較好的模型，以3種年齡段為例，計算分析瞭它們的養老金、替代率、收支等情況．結果錶明：職工年平均工資高、退休年齡遲于60歲、繳費年數多于20年，則替代率高，能接近目標值；若基礎養老金按現收現付方式管理，且按目前法定年齡退休，則缺口較大．因此，要從政策與管理等多方麵採取有效措施，保障養老金保險製度順利實施．
기업직공양로기금적수지평형，관계도사회은정화향노령화사회적순리과도．이용미분방정、고계함수건립료예측원기사회평균공자급직공재직시적공자모형，병경분석대비，선용여실제문합교호적모형，이3충년령단위례，계산분석료타문적양로금、체대솔、수지등정황．결과표명：직공년평균공자고、퇴휴년령지우60세、격비년수다우20년，칙체대솔고，능접근목표치；약기출양로금안현수현부방식관리，차안목전법정년령퇴휴，칙결구교대．인차，요종정책여관리등다방면채취유효조시，보장양로금보험제도순리실시．
Pension fund balance of enterprise workers concers the social stability and smooth transition to an aging society. The author uses differential equation and higher-order function to establish a model which can predict long term staff＇s salary and average wage. Through comparison and analysis, a suitable model is chosen and an example including three different age cohorts is taken. In the end, it is concluded that, if the staff＇s per capita annual salary is high, his retirement age can start after 60, and his payment year lasts for more than 20 years, as a result, the rate of substitution is high. If basic pension is under the management of pay-as-you-go, and the retirement age is carried out in accordance with the government statute, there will be a big gap. Therefore, it needs to take effective countermeasures on policy and management to guard the smooth implementation of pension insurance system.
