CAJ | 학술논문

运用灰色GM（1，1）模型对寸滩2003—2010年的水质进行模拟时发现，对有些污染物的模拟精度不高。针对此问题，采用改进后的新陈代谢GM（1，1）模型对寸滩水质再次进行模拟，通过前后误差分析、对比，发现模拟精度有明显提高。因此，利用新陈代谢GM（1，1）模型对寸滩2011—2015年的水质变化进行预测，结果表明，BOD5和TP浓度有逐渐下降趋势，且水质较好，CODMn和NH3-N水质较好，但有缓慢增加趋势，总氮污染严重，且污染有加重趋势。新陈代谢模型值得广泛使用，但在污染因子的选取上应考虑数据系列值的大小。
운용회색GM（1，1）모형대촌탄2003—2010년적수질진행모의시발현，대유사오염물적모의정도불고。침대차문제，채용개진후적신진대사GM（1，1）모형대촌탄수질재차진행모의，통과전후오차분석、대비，발현모의정도유명현제고。인차，이용신진대사GM（1，1）모형대촌탄2011—2015년적수질변화진행예측，결과표명，BOD5화TP농도유축점하강추세，차수질교호，CODMn화NH3-N수질교호，단유완만증가추세，총담오염엄중，차오염유가중추세。신진대사모형치득엄범사용，단재오염인자적선취상응고필수거계렬치적대소。
It was found that the simulation precision of some pollutants was not high when the Grey GM （1, 1） Model was used to simulate the water quality during 2003--2010 at Cuntan. To solve the problem, the improved Metabolism GM （1, 1） Model was adopted to simulate the water quality at Cuntan, resulting in a significant in- crease in simulation precision as found by the analysis and comparison of previous and later errors. Therefore, a pre- diction was made tO the water quality change during 2011- 2015 by using the established Metabolism GM （1, 1） Model, which showed that water quality was good with a gradual decrease of BOD5 and TP but with a gradual in- crease of CODmn and NH3-N and with severe and increasing total nitrogen pollution. Metabolism Model is worth wide application, but the values of data series should be taken into account when pollution factors are selected.