CAJ | 학술논문

以中尺度非静力WRF模式的格点预报结果作为云模式的初值集合，经云模式的多初值雷暴预报及预报结果的集合分析，建立了雷暴云的集合预报方法。将该方法应用于南京周边地区未来一天雷暴天气的特征预报，并利用南京夏季9个雷暴天气的多普勒雷达资料（SCIT，storm cell identification and tracking）进行预报效果的检验。结果表明，雷暴云的集合预报对研究区域内未来一天雷暴强度、分布预报效果较好，尤其对强雷暴的分布有较强的预警预测能力。此外，雷暴持续时间概率密度分布的集合预报产品，在雷暴影响范围概率预报上的应用，提高了雷达对雷暴的预警监测能力。
이중척도비정력WRF모식적격점예보결과작위운모식적초치집합，경운모식적다초치뇌폭예보급예보결과적집합분석，건립료뇌폭운적집합예보방법。장해방법응용우남경주변지구미래일천뇌폭천기적특정예보，병이용남경하계9개뇌폭천기적다보륵뢰체자료（SCIT，storm cell identification and tracking）진행예보효과적검험。결과표명，뇌폭운적집합예보대연구구역내미래일천뇌폭강도、분포예보효과교호，우기대강뇌폭적분포유교강적예경예측능력。차외，뇌폭지속시간개솔밀도분포적집합예보산품，재뇌폭영향범위개솔예보상적응용，제고료뢰체대뇌폭적예경감측능력。
A thunderstorm ensemble forecasting approach is perti~rmed by the ensemble analysis of the cloud model＇ s forecast results according to the initial condition aggregation provided by the grid fore-cast results of the mesoscale non-hydrostatic WRF model. The approach is applied to forecast the char-acteristics of thunderstorm around Nanjing one day in advance and is verified by the Doppler radar data of the thunderstorms in summer in Nanjing. Results show that the intensity and distribution of thunder-storms over the research area is reasonably predicted one day in advance. It is particularly good to fore-cast the distribution of the strong thunderstorms by using the ensemble forecasting technique. Moreover, the application of the PDF（probability density function）of thunderstorms＇ duration into the probability forecasting of the influenced area of thunderstorms improves the radar＇ s warning and monitoring capac-ity of local thunderstorms.