CAJ | 학술논문

利用NCEP／NCAR、ERA-40再分析资料和中国160站盛夏（7、8月）降水资料，使用相关分析、合成分析等方法，分析了马斯克林高压（马高）与华北盛夏降水的年际关系及其年代际变化。结果表明：马高与华北盛夏降水在年际时间尺度上存在显著的负相关关系，这种显著的负相关关系从1974年以后开始减弱。在强关系阶段（1951-1973年），马高与中国东部盛夏降水的显著负相关中心主要位于华北地区；在弱关系阶段（1974-2011年），马高与华北盛夏降水的负相关关系变弱，与长江中下游地区的正相关关系变强。导致马高与华北盛夏降水年际关系发生年代际变化的原因是：中国东部地区（不）受来自马高的异常偏南气流影响，使得华北盛夏降水偏多（少），两者关系偏强（弱）。马高与华北盛夏降水年际关系发生的年代际变化，是中国东部地区从20世纪70年代中期以后出现“南涝北旱”的原因之一。
이용NCEP／NCAR、ERA-40재분석자료화중국160참성하（7、8월）강수자료，사용상관분석、합성분석등방법，분석료마사극림고압（마고）여화북성하강수적년제관계급기년대제변화。결과표명：마고여화북성하강수재년제시간척도상존재현저적부상관관계，저충현저적부상관관계종1974년이후개시감약。재강관계계단（1951-1973년），마고여중국동부성하강수적현저부상관중심주요위우화북지구；재약관계계단（1974-2011년），마고여화북성하강수적부상관관계변약，여장강중하유지구적정상관관계변강。도치마고여화북성하강수년제관계발생년대제변화적원인시：중국동부지구（불）수래자마고적이상편남기류영향，사득화북성하강수편다（소），량자관계편강（약）。마고여화북성하강수년제관계발생적년대제변화，시중국동부지구종20세기70년대중기이후출현“남로북한”적원인지일。
Based on the NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40 reanalysis datasets and 160 stations precipitation data in China in summer （ July and August）, by means of correlation analysis, composite analysis and other methods, the interannual relationship between Mascarene High （MH） and summer precipitation in North China and it＇s interdecadal variability are analyzed. Results show that there is significant negative corre-lation between the MH and sunkrner precipitation in North China in interannual time scale and that this negative correlation relationship began to diminish since 1974. During the stronger period （1951-1973）, significant negative correlation center between the MH and summer precipitation over eastern China was mainly located in North China, while during the weaker period（ 1974-2011 ）, the negative correlation between the MH and summer precipitation over North China became weaker, and significant positive correlation center was observed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river. The cause for interdecadal variability between MH and summer precipitation in North China is as follows：when Eastern China is（not） influenced by the stronger anomalous south wind coming from MH, summer pre-cipitation in North China is more（ less）, and the relationship between MH and summer precipitation in North China is in stronger（weaker） period. The interdecadal variability of inter-annual relationship be-tween MH and summer precipitation in North China is one of the causes for the floods in Southeast Chi-na and droughts in Northeast China since the mid-1970s.