CAJ | 학술논문

利用1978—2010年的时间序列数据,通过协整分析、脉冲响应分析和方差分解,对我国城市化对全社会就业总量、城镇就业量和乡村就业量的长期影响效应及动态过程进行了实证分析。结果表明：我国人口城市化与各就业量之间存在长期稳定均衡关系,城市化无论对我国就业还是对城乡就业均存在正向效应,但对城镇就业的推动作用要远大于对乡村就业及全社会就业的推动作用;我国城市化对就业的中短期影响效应与长期影响效应不一致;在中短期内,城市化水平的提升对城镇就业的影响程度相对长期而言要较弱,而对全社会就业和乡村就业不仅不存在正向的促进作用,反而存在一定程度的抑制作用。最后,分析了导致上述差异的原因,并就在我国城市化进程中如何有效提高我国就业水平提出相应的政策建议。
이용1978—2010년적시간서렬수거,통과협정분석、맥충향응분석화방차분해,대아국성시화대전사회취업총량、성진취업량화향촌취업량적장기영향효응급동태과정진행료실증분석。결과표명：아국인구성시화여각취업량지간존재장기은정균형관계,성시화무론대아국취업환시대성향취업균존재정향효응,단대성진취업적추동작용요원대우대향촌취업급전사회취업적추동작용;아국성시화대취업적중단기영향효응여장기영향효응불일치;재중단기내,성시화수평적제승대성진취업적영향정도상대장기이언요교약,이대전사회취업화향촌취업불부불존재정향적촉진작용,반이존재일정정도적억제작용。최후,분석료도치상술차이적원인,병취재아국성시화진정중여하유효제고아국취업수평제출상응적정책건의。
Using the time serial data during 1978-2010, this paper empirically analyzes the long-term effects of urbanization on total employment, urban employment and rural employment and the dynamic influence process through using the co-integration theory, impulse response and variance decomposition. The results show as follows：there are the long-run equilibrium relationship between urbanization and them, namely total employment, urban employment and rural employment, and the former has positive effects on the latter, but the impetus of urbanization on urban employment is much larger than that on total employment and rural employment; the short- and mid-term effects and long-term effects of urbani- zation on employment are not inconsistent; in the short- and mid-term, the effect of urbanization on urban employment is growing, but urbaniza- tion has inhibiting effects on total employment and rural employment rather than positive promoting roles. Finally,it analyzes the reason causing such differences, and puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations to promote the employment level in the process of Chinas urbaniza- tion effectively.