CAJ | 학술논문

通过测算中部地区1995-2010年间碳排放状况及LMDI影响因素分解分析，发现经济规模的扩大是拉动中部人均碳排放的决定因素，其累积排放效应远高于能源效率和能源结构的碳减排效应。基于IPAT方程对中部地区碳减排与经济增长最优情景的定量分析表明，适宜中部地区2020年和2030年的最优低碳发展情景分别是“中增长、高效率”和“低增长、低效率”。
통과측산중부지구1995-2010년간탄배방상황급LMDI영향인소분해분석，발현경제규모적확대시랍동중부인균탄배방적결정인소，기루적배방효응원고우능원효솔화능원결구적탄감배효응。기우IPAT방정대중부지구탄감배여경제증장최우정경적정량분석표명，괄의중부지구2020년화2030년적최우저탄발전정경분별시“중증장、고효솔”화“저증장、저효솔”。
By measuring the carbon emissions of six provincesin centralChina from 1995 to 2010 and taking LM- DI factor decomposition analysis, this paper suggests that economic expansion is the dominant factor causing the growth of central region＇ s per capita carbonemissions, whose cumulativeemission effects are much higher than thecarbon reductioneffects brought by energy efficiency and energy structure. On the basis of scenario analysis and IPAT equation, the paper further makes optimal scenario analysis on the economicgrowth andcarbonreduction of the centralChina, and the results show that in 2020 and 2030, respectively, the optimallow carbondevelopmentscenario for the central China is ＂moderate growth, highefficiency＂ and＂ lowgrowth, low efficiency＂.