CAJ | 학술논문

为了研究城市环境噪声污染的数学模型,通过对厦门市环境噪声的实际情况的分析并结合指数平滑预测模型,提出了符合当前环境噪声的分段三次指数平滑模型。计算了不同平滑系数时数学模型的精度,同时应用建立的数学模型对福州市10年内的噪声污染进行了预测。预测发现,噪声污染呈逐年减小的趋势,到2020年区域环境噪声和交通噪声污染分别达55.09 dB（A）和67.19 dB（A）。指数平滑法的应用效果与平滑系数的选取关系密切,应用时要根据预测的精度要求和预测期限的长短,适当选取平滑系数,并对预测的精度进行分析。结果表明基于该方法预测未来中期环境噪声准确率满足使用需求,并为其他环境噪声预测提供一种新的方法。
위료연구성시배경조성오염적수학모형,통과대하문시배경조성적실제정황적분석병결합지수평활예측모형,제출료부합당전배경조성적분단삼차지수평활모형。계산료불동평활계수시수학모형적정도,동시응용건립적수학모형대복주시10년내적조성오염진행료예측。예측발현,조성오염정축년감소적추세,도2020년구역배경조성화교통조성오염분별체55.09 dB（A）화67.19 dB（A）。지수평활법적응용효과여평활계수적선취관계밀절,응용시요근거예측적정도요구화예측기한적장단,괄당선취평활계수,병대예측적정도진행분석。결과표명기우해방법예측미래중기배경조성준학솔만족사용수구,병위기타배경조성예측제공일충신적방법。
In order to investigate the environment noise pollution of a city,a thrice exponential smooth model was put forward by combining the analysis of the environment noise in Xiamen city,which was in accordance with the current environmental noise condition in Xiamen.Accuracy analysis of the mathematical model was conducted for the different smooth coefficients,and the model was applied to forecast the noise pollution of Xiamen in the next ten years.The forecasting results showed that the regional environmental noise and the traffic noise would decrease gradually to 55.09 dB（A）and 67.19 dB（A）in 2020,respectively.The smooth coefficient was the key factor in the application of the exponential smooth method,which should be properly selected according to the accuracy requirement and the forecasting period.The exponential smooth model could meet the demands for predicting the future environmental noise,which provided a new method for the environmental noise prediction.