CAJ | 학술논문

以1978年至2008年的某省职工年平均工资作为样本数据、2009年至2010年的数据作为模型检验数据,建立了基于时间序列分析的ARMA模型,使用Eviews软件对时间序列进行分析,根据Box-Jenkins模型识别方法,得出模型的参数,进而得到模型,误差分析表明模型的预测结果非常理想。
이1978년지2008년적모성직공년평균공자작위양본수거、2009년지2010년적수거작위모형검험수거,건립료기우시간서렬분석적ARMA모형,사용Eviews연건대시간서렬진행분석,근거Box-Jenkins모형식별방법,득출모형적삼수,진이득도모형,오차분석표명모형적예측결과비상이상。
By using the average wage of workers in a province from 1978 to 2008 as a sample data,and data from 2009 to 2010 as a model test data,ARMA model is established based on the time series analysis.Time series is analyzed by using Eviews software.According to Box-Jenkins model identification method,the model parameters is derived,and then the model is got.The error analysis indicates that the model predictions are very satisfactory.