CAJ | 학술논문

　　使用高空探测资料、FY-2C卫星云图、CIMSS气象卫星云图分析资料、历年台风路径、NCEP再分析资料，以及欧洲气象中心全球模式(EC)、日本气象厅全球模式(JMA)、国家气象中心全球模式(T639)、上海台风模式(SHTM)等预报资料，基于对2011年第9号台风“梅花”路径以及台风相似路径的预报等，分析影响台风“梅花”移动路径的环境系统演变，从中找出影响台风“梅花”移动转向的关键系统，分析和检验各数值模式对台风路径预报的结果；同时，研究台风路径相似预报方法。结果表明，位于日本的副热带高压南伸并与“梅花”东南侧的弱反气旋打通，引导气流中偏南风分量逐渐加大是“梅花”路径转向以致不在我国登陆的关键点；对数值模式预报的路径，应根据实况天气形势演变订正其预报误差；根据前期路径选多个关键区找台风相似路径更具参考性。
　　사용고공탐측자료、FY-2C위성운도、CIMSS기상위성운도분석자료、력년태풍로경、NCEP재분석자료，이급구주기상중심전구모식(EC)、일본기상청전구모식(JMA)、국가기상중심전구모식(T639)、상해태풍모식(SHTM)등예보자료，기우대2011년제9호태풍“매화”로경이급태풍상사로경적예보등，분석영향태풍“매화”이동로경적배경계통연변，종중조출영향태풍“매화”이동전향적관건계통，분석화검험각수치모식대태풍로경예보적결과；동시，연구태풍로경상사예보방법。결과표명，위우일본적부열대고압남신병여“매화”동남측적약반기선타통，인도기류중편남풍분량축점가대시“매화”로경전향이치불재아국등륙적관건점；대수치모식예보적로경，응근거실황천기형세연변정정기예보오차；근거전기로경선다개관건구조태풍상사로경경구삼고성。
Based on comprehensive data including radiosonde observations, FY-2C satellite images, products from CIMSS, Best Track Data of CMA, NCEP reanalysis data, outputs from models of ECMWF, JMA, CMA (T639), and STI (SHTM-Shanghai Typhoon Model, Shanghai Ty-phoon Institute), an analysis on environment systems transition and verification of numerical model products are performed to probe the turn-ing cause and forecast error of super typhoon Muifa. Some facts are revealed as follows:the subtropical high located on Japan extends south-ward and is connected with a weak anticyclone southeast to Muifa, resulting in an intensification of the southerly steering flow of Muifa, which acts as a significant role in the turning of Muifa during 4th-5th Aug. 2011. Forecast analysis illustrates that real-time correction processes are necessary for prediction products by numerical models according to actual weather situation before using. A multi-area searching could be a better method for finding similar typhoon track according to the historical storms.