计算机系统应用
計算機繫統應用
계산궤계통응용
APPLICATIONS OF THE COMPUTER SYSTEMS
2014年
4期
173-177
,共5页
灰色模型%变异粒子群算法%电力负荷%预测
灰色模型%變異粒子群算法%電力負荷%預測
회색모형%변이입자군산법%전력부하%예측
grey model%particle swarm optimization with mutation%electric power load%prediction
由于电力负荷量是电力系统发展的基础，因此提高电力负荷量预测的准确性有利于电力系统的快速发展。本文利用粒子群算法优化参数的良好性能和灰色预测法适合预测不确定因素影响系统的优势，提出了灰色变异粒子群组合预测模型来预测电力负荷量，提高了电力负荷预测的精度，并通过实例对组合预测模型的预测精度和有效性进行了分析。结果表明，此组合预测模型的精度优于单一的灰色预测模型，且优于其他几种预测算法，该组合模型能很好地预测电力负荷量，为电力系统的决策和发展提供了可靠的科学数据。
由于電力負荷量是電力繫統髮展的基礎，因此提高電力負荷量預測的準確性有利于電力繫統的快速髮展。本文利用粒子群算法優化參數的良好性能和灰色預測法適閤預測不確定因素影響繫統的優勢，提齣瞭灰色變異粒子群組閤預測模型來預測電力負荷量，提高瞭電力負荷預測的精度，併通過實例對組閤預測模型的預測精度和有效性進行瞭分析。結果錶明，此組閤預測模型的精度優于單一的灰色預測模型，且優于其他幾種預測算法，該組閤模型能很好地預測電力負荷量，為電力繫統的決策和髮展提供瞭可靠的科學數據。
유우전력부하량시전력계통발전적기출，인차제고전력부하량예측적준학성유리우전력계통적쾌속발전。본문이용입자군산법우화삼수적량호성능화회색예측법괄합예측불학정인소영향계통적우세，제출료회색변이입자군조합예측모형래예측전력부하량，제고료전력부하예측적정도，병통과실례대조합예측모형적예측정도화유효성진행료분석。결과표명，차조합예측모형적정도우우단일적회색예측모형，차우우기타궤충예측산법，해조합모형능흔호지예측전력부하량，위전력계통적결책화발전제공료가고적과학수거。
Due to the electric power load is the basis of development of electric power system, our work intents to improve predicting accuracy of electric power load is beneficial to the development of electric power system. This paper by using the good performance of particle swarm algorithm to optimize the parameters and the advantage of grey prediction method for forecasting uncertainty factors affecting the system puts forward the grey mutation particle swarm combination forecasting model to predict urban public transit volume, improved the electric power load accuracy. Also through the examples analyzed prediction accuracy and effectiveness of the combination forecast model. The results show that the accuracy of the combination forecast model is better than that a single gray of forecasting model and other prediction algorithms, this model can well predict urban public transit volume which provides a reliable scientific data for the decision and development of electric power system.
