人民黄河
人民黃河
인민황하
Yellow River
2013年
12期
140-142
,共3页
岩爆预测%灰色系统%最优归类模型%综合评判指数%动态权重
巖爆預測%灰色繫統%最優歸類模型%綜閤評判指數%動態權重
암폭예측%회색계통%최우귀류모형%종합평판지수%동태권중
rock burst prediction%grey system%best optimal theory model%comprehensive evaluation index%dynamic weight
在灰色关联分析和模糊识别原理的基础上，运用最小二乘法构造目标函数，选取影响岩爆的主要因素洞壁围岩最大切向应力σt、岩块单轴抗压强度σc、岩爆岩石的脆性指数 Ku、应力下降指数 Kσ、岩石的弹性能量指数 Kw ，并将σt/σc、Ku、Kσ和Kw作为评价影响因子进行关联分析，同时将岩爆烈度划分为无岩爆、弱岩爆、中岩爆和强岩爆4个等级，建立岩爆烈度分级预测的灰色最优归类数学模型。模型运用了动态权重计算方法和综合评判指数的概念，充分考虑了评价标准指标的离散性。利用该模型对四川某水工隧洞3个断面围岩岩爆发生的可能性及烈度等级进行了预测，获得了较为客观的评价效果，表明所采用的地下洞室岩爆烈度预测方法是合理、有效的。
在灰色關聯分析和模糊識彆原理的基礎上，運用最小二乘法構造目標函數，選取影響巖爆的主要因素洞壁圍巖最大切嚮應力σt、巖塊單軸抗壓彊度σc、巖爆巖石的脆性指數 Ku、應力下降指數 Kσ、巖石的彈性能量指數 Kw ，併將σt/σc、Ku、Kσ和Kw作為評價影響因子進行關聯分析，同時將巖爆烈度劃分為無巖爆、弱巖爆、中巖爆和彊巖爆4箇等級，建立巖爆烈度分級預測的灰色最優歸類數學模型。模型運用瞭動態權重計算方法和綜閤評判指數的概唸，充分攷慮瞭評價標準指標的離散性。利用該模型對四川某水工隧洞3箇斷麵圍巖巖爆髮生的可能性及烈度等級進行瞭預測，穫得瞭較為客觀的評價效果，錶明所採用的地下洞室巖爆烈度預測方法是閤理、有效的。
재회색관련분석화모호식별원리적기출상，운용최소이승법구조목표함수，선취영향암폭적주요인소동벽위암최대절향응력σt、암괴단축항압강도σc、암폭암석적취성지수 Ku、응력하강지수 Kσ、암석적탄성능량지수 Kw ，병장σt/σc、Ku、Kσ화Kw작위평개영향인자진행관련분석，동시장암폭열도화분위무암폭、약암폭、중암폭화강암폭4개등급，건립암폭열도분급예측적회색최우귀류수학모형。모형운용료동태권중계산방법화종합평판지수적개념，충분고필료평개표준지표적리산성。이용해모형대사천모수공수동3개단면위암암폭발생적가능성급열도등급진행료예측，획득료교위객관적평개효과，표명소채용적지하동실암폭열도예측방법시합리、유효적。
Rock burst is a kind of dynamic instability phenomenon of surrounding rock in underground projects in deep high-geostress zone. The prediction of possibility and classification of rock burst can provide the reference for engineering risk analysis report and take preventive measures. Based on the principle of grey correlation analysis and fuzzy model identification,a new grey system optimal theory model was established to predict rock burst occurrence. Some main control factors of rock burst,such as the maximum tangential stress of the cavern wallσt ,the uniaxial compres-sive strengthσc ,rock brittleness index Ku and stress index Kσand the elastic energy index Kw of rock were chosen in the analysis. Four factors in-cluding σt/σc ,Ku ,Kσ and Kw were regarded as the evaluating indices. And rock burst intensity was classified as the non-rock burst,slight rock burst,medium rock burst and serious rock burst in the prediction model. The dynamic weight calculation method and comprehensive evaluation in-dex concept was used to give enough thought to discrete variable of evaluation index. By using the model of a hydraulic tunnel in Sichuan X,Y,and Z engineering sections of the possibility of rock burst in surrounding rock and the level of intensity was forecasted. The objective evaluation of the effect shows that the intensity of rock burst in underground caverns adopted by the prediction method is reasonable and effective.
