CAJ | 학술논문

证据理论可以对随机、模糊等不确定信息进行有效处理，提出了基于D-S证据理论的边坡可靠性分析方法。该方法可提高可靠性分析的效率，具有较强的处理不确定性因素的能力，在精度上也能满足要求；同时，由于计算基本可信度分配时没有限定随机变量的分布，因此该方法可以不用对任意分布的随机变量进行正态化处理，克服了传统方法的一些缺点。结合实例计算了边坡失效概率和可靠性指标，结果表明：基于证据理论的边坡可靠性分析结果与采用蒙特卡罗法的计算结果基本一致。
증거이론가이대수궤、모호등불학정신식진행유효처리，제출료기우D-S증거이론적변파가고성분석방법。해방법가제고가고성분석적효솔，구유교강적처리불학정성인소적능력，재정도상야능만족요구；동시，유우계산기본가신도분배시몰유한정수궤변량적분포，인차해방법가이불용대임의분포적수궤변량진행정태화처리，극복료전통방법적일사결점。결합실례계산료변파실효개솔화가고성지표，결과표명：기우증거이론적변파가고성분석결과여채용몽특잡라법적계산결과기본일치。
Evidence theory can effectively deal with random and vague uncertain information. This paper proposed slope reliability analysis method based on D-S evidence theory. This method could not only improve the efficiency of reliability analysis,but also meet the accuracy requirements, with a strong ability to deal with uncertainty. Meanwhile,because it was not limited to the distribution of the random variable when calculating the basic probability assignment,it could overcome some of the shortcomings of traditional methods such as the random variable with arbitrary distribu-tion could not to be treated as normal distribution. It calculates slope failure probability and reliability index with examples,the calculation results of slope reliability analysis show that the method based on evidence theory is the same as Monte Carlo method.