CAJ | 학술논문

以台兰水文站1959-2008年序列实测数据为基础，利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法和多种水文统计指标分析了台兰河径流量的年内、年际变化特征以及年径流量和四季径流量的变化趋势。结果表明：①台兰河径流量年内分配不均匀、集中度高，径流量年际变化比较稳定、CV值变幅较小，20世纪90年代后，多年平均径流量的距平变幅增大、径流量有所增大；②50 a来，台兰河年径流量呈明显上升趋势，春、夏、秋季径流量的增大趋势显著，冬季径流量的增大趋势不显著，径流量分别在1960年、1962年、1983年发生突变，20世纪90年代前径流量变化趋势不显著，之后径流量呈明显上升趋势。
이태란수문참1959-2008년서렬실측수거위기출，이용Mann-Kendall추세검험법화다충수문통계지표분석료태란하경류량적년내、년제변화특정이급년경류량화사계경류량적변화추세。결과표명：①태란하경류량년내분배불균균、집중도고，경류량년제변화비교은정、CV치변폭교소，20세기90년대후，다년평균경류량적거평변폭증대、경류량유소증대；②50 a래，태란하년경류량정명현상승추세，춘、하、추계경류량적증대추세현저，동계경류량적증대추세불현저，경류량분별재1960년、1962년、1983년발생돌변，20세기90년대전경류량변화추세불현저，지후경류량정명현상승추세。
This paper presented the analysis on the hydrological features of runoff and its change over the last 50 years in Tereng River basin. Mann-Kendall trend test and other hydrologic statistical approaches were used to detect the possible change in runoff in annual and seasonal basis. The runoff data refers to 1959-2008,and obtained from the Tereng Hydrological Station at the river’s outlet. The results show that the distribution of annual runoff is highly imbalanced between the four seasons,and mostly concentrated in summer. The change of runoff on annual step shows less fluctuation with relatively small CV value during the whole study period,and the annual runoff after 1990s exceeds the long time average annual run-off with obvious increment. The Mann-Kendall test results in the identification of an overall increasing trend in annual runoff statistically signifi-cant. Similar increasing trends in the spring,summer and autumn runoff is detected statistically significant while the upward trend in winter runoff is found statistically non-significant. Three points in time of the beginning of a developing trend is detected respectively in 1960,1962 and 1983 respectively. The increasing trend of annual runoff is non-significant before 1990s and significant after the 1990s.