CAJ | 학술논문

本文通过对2008年11月1-2日楚雄州一次暴雨天气过程进行分析，给出了暴雨天气过程的影响系统，重点对各种统计预报、经验预报以及数值产品的预报能力进行了检验。主要结论有：500hPa横槽和700hPa过西昌切变线是本次强降水主要天气系统。统计预报对此次暴雨天气的预报是失效的，而德国的降水预报和欧洲中心形势预报对本次暴雨天气具有一定的预报能力。
본문통과대2008년11월1-2일초웅주일차폭우천기과정진행분석，급출료폭우천기과정적영향계통，중점대각충통계예보、경험예보이급수치산품적예보능력진행료검험。주요결론유：500hPa횡조화700hPa과서창절변선시본차강강수주요천기계통。통계예보대차차폭우천기적예보시실효적，이덕국적강수예보화구주중심형세예보대본차폭우천기구유일정적예보능력。
This article through Chuxiong state rainstorm weather process carries on the analysis to November a 1-2, 2008, has given the rainstorm weather process influence system, key to each kind of statistical forecast, the experience forecast as well as value product forecast ability has carried on the examination.The main conclusion includes:The 500hPa horizontal trough and the 700hPa Xichang shear line are this strong precipitation main weather systems.The statistical forecast to this rainstorm weather forecast is the expiration, but Ger-many's precipitation forecast has certain forecast ability with the Euro-pean center situation forecast to this rainstorm weather.