CAJ | 학술논문

利用江西省82个气象观测站1971-2012年地面气象观测资料和14个农业气象观测站1981-2012年双季水稻物候观测资料，针对气候变暖对江西省稳定通过10℃初日、20℃终日以及双季水稻生育期热量条件的影响，依据双季水稻熟性搭配种植对热量条件的需求，采用倒推法计算不同年代以及13个30 a滑动平均序列的双季早稻适播期，分析双季早稻适播期起止日期与持续日数的变化特征。结果表明：10℃初日总体呈提前趋势，尤其是2001年以后，大幅度提前；不同年代间20℃终日的变化幅度较10℃初日的小；适播期起始日期大部分站点呈“推迟-推迟-大幅提前”的趋势，终止日期大部分站点呈“推迟-提前-大幅推迟”的趋势，持续日数一般呈“增加-减少-大幅增加”变化趋势。受气候变暖的影响，江西省适宜采用“中熟+中熟”搭配方式种植双季水稻的地区逐步北扩，尤其是2001年以后，可采取“中熟+中熟”搭配方式的地区明显扩大。1981-2010年江西省除修水县、铜鼓县、资溪县等局部地区外，大部地区可采取“中熟+中熟”搭配方式。1991-2020年，除了修水、婺源等赣北局部地区种植仍有一定风险外，其余地区的热量条件均满足“中熟+中熟”搭配方式的双季水稻种植，或采取对热量条件要求更高的熟性搭配方式种植，如南昌县、樟树市等地可调整为“中熟+迟熟”或“迟熟+中熟”搭配方式，而泰和县、南康县、龙南县等地可因地制宜采取“迟熟+迟熟”搭配方式种植双季水稻，以充分利用热量资源，提高双季水稻产量与品质。
이용강서성82개기상관측참1971-2012년지면기상관측자료화14개농업기상관측참1981-2012년쌍계수도물후관측자료，침대기후변난대강서성은정통과10℃초일、20℃종일이급쌍계수도생육기열량조건적영향，의거쌍계수도숙성탑배충식대열량조건적수구，채용도추법계산불동년대이급13개30 a활동평균서렬적쌍계조도괄파기，분석쌍계조도괄파기기지일기여지속일수적변화특정。결과표명：10℃초일총체정제전추세，우기시2001년이후，대폭도제전；불동년대간20℃종일적변화폭도교10℃초일적소；괄파기기시일기대부분참점정“추지-추지-대폭제전”적추세，종지일기대부분참점정“추지-제전-대폭추지”적추세，지속일수일반정“증가-감소-대폭증가”변화추세。수기후변난적영향，강서성괄의채용“중숙+중숙”탑배방식충식쌍계수도적지구축보북확，우기시2001년이후，가채취“중숙+중숙”탑배방식적지구명현확대。1981-2010년강서성제수수현、동고현、자계현등국부지구외，대부지구가채취“중숙+중숙”탑배방식。1991-2020년，제료수수、무원등공북국부지구충식잉유일정풍험외，기여지구적열량조건균만족“중숙+중숙”탑배방식적쌍계수도충식，혹채취대열량조건요구경고적숙성탑배방식충식，여남창현、장수시등지가조정위“중숙+지숙”혹“지숙+중숙”탑배방식，이태화현、남강현、룡남현등지가인지제의채취“지숙+지숙”탑배방식충식쌍계수도，이충분이용열량자원，제고쌍계수도산량여품질。
The beginning date of 10 ℃, the end date of 20 ℃ and the heat resources during the growth period of double cropping rice in Jiangxi province have changed obviously due to the climate warming. According to the heat condition demand of double cropping rice production, the backward algorithm was employed to analyze the decadal variation and the 13 30-years moving average sequences of optimum sowing period of double cropping early rice in Jiangxi based on the 1971-2012 observed meteorological data and growth period data of double cropping rice during the period of 1981-2012 from 14 agro meteorological stations. The results showed that the beginning date of 10 ℃ showed a tendency to advance in age, especially after 2001. The decadal end date of 20 ℃was relatively stable. The beginning date and the end date of optimum sowing period showed tendencies of “delayed - delayed -advanced significantly”and“delayed-advanced-delayed significantly”respectively, while the duration of optimum sowing period showed a tendency of “increased-decreased-increased significantly”. Under the background of climate warming, the region suitable f or“medium+medium”ripening cultivars of double cropping expanded northward step by step, and it had broadened out evidently after 2001. In most area of Jiangxi,“medium+medium”ripening cultivars of double cropping could be adopted during 1981-2010, except for the regions as Xiushui, Wuyuan, Hukou and Yifeng. In the period of 1991-2020, there was still certain risk to take“medium+ medium” ripening cultivars of double cropping in some regions in northern Jiangxi, such as Xiushui and Wuyuan, while the rest will be suitable to adopt “medium + medium” ripening cultivars of double cropping. Moreover, in Nanchang and Zhangshu, there could adjust to“medium + late” or“late + medium” ripening cultivars of double cropping, and in Taihe, Nankang and Longnan, there could take“late + late” in order to make full use of heat resources.