CAJ | 학술논문

吸纳周期是表征住房市场流动性特征的重要指标，本文研究了这一指标在住房市场监测中的应用原理与方法，并使用我国40个大中城市数据进行了实证分析。研究表明：吸纳周期存在一个表征市场供求均衡与价格稳定的均衡水平，市场当前吸纳周期水平与其均衡水平的对比关系可以作为判断市场发展趋势变化的重要参考。当吸纳周期高于均衡水平时，价格下跌的概率增加，土地购置与开发活动减弱；当吸纳周期低于均衡水平时，价格上涨的概率增加，土地购置与开发活动增强。通过实证研究发现，我国40个主要城市平均的吸纳周期均衡水平约为12个月，但存在着较大的城市间差异。除了数据统计质量的影响以外，住房价格上涨预期、土地与开发成本、市场风险以及市场垄断程度等因素都会影响到均衡水平的大小。因此，在实际应用中，需要在不同城市设置相应的吸纳周期均衡水平。
흡납주기시표정주방시장류동성특정적중요지표，본문연구료저일지표재주방시장감측중적응용원리여방법，병사용아국40개대중성시수거진행료실증분석。연구표명：흡납주기존재일개표정시장공구균형여개격은정적균형수평，시장당전흡납주기수평여기균형수평적대비관계가이작위판단시장발전추세변화적중요삼고。당흡납주기고우균형수평시，개격하질적개솔증가，토지구치여개발활동감약；당흡납주기저우균형수평시，개격상창적개솔증가，토지구치여개발활동증강。통과실증연구발현，아국40개주요성시평균적흡납주기균형수평약위12개월，단존재착교대적성시간차이。제료수거통계질량적영향이외，주방개격상창예기、토지여개발성본、시장풍험이급시장롱단정도등인소도회영향도균형수평적대소。인차，재실제응용중，수요재불동성시설치상응적흡납주기균형수평。
Absorption period is a critical indicator measuring the level of housing liquidity in housing markets .This paper presents the application mechanism and method of the new commodity housing absorption period in monitoring housing markets.The supported empirical study is also given based on the data from the 40 major cities in China.The results show that there is an equilibrium level of absorption period indicating that the supply and demand of housing are equilib -rium and housing price will be stable.The difference between the actual absorption period and its equilibrium level can be used as an important indicator for monitoring the housing market development.That is,when the absorption period is greater than the equilibrium level ,the probability of housing price decreasing will increase and the quantity of land pur -chase and housing starts will decrease;when the absorption period is smaller than the equilibrium level ,the probability of housing price rising and the quantity of land purchase and housing starts will both increase .Based on the results of the empirical study ,it is found that the equilibrium levels of absorption period in the 40 major cities are quite different from each other and the average level is about 12 months.Beside the differences in the quality of housing statistics ,there are some other factors affecting the equilibrium level ,such as the expectation of housing price growth ,land and construction cost,market risk and developers'monopoly power.As a result,in practice,the equilibrium levels of absorption period should be set individually in different cities.