CAJ | 학술논문

目的：分析农村和城镇精神分裂症患者的住院费用及其趋势，为进一步完善农村和城镇患者的补偿政策、减轻患者的经济压力提供参考依据。方法：收集某省精神专科医院2006-2012年住院精神分裂症患者的资料，对住院情况进行统计描述，并采用时间序列自回归移动平均模型（ARIMA）模型对农村和城镇患者的人均住院费用进行短期预测。结果：7年来农村精神分裂症住院人数增长了75.10%，城镇为93.27%；城镇患者的人均住院天数明显高于农村患者的人均住院天数；农村精神分裂症患者的人均住院费用增长了194.76%，城镇增长了248.72%。农村患者住院费用的预测模型为ARIMA (1,2,1)，城镇为ARIMA (1,1,0)；2013年农村和城镇患者人均住院费用基本保持先前的上升趋势。结论：农村和城镇住院精神分裂症患者不断增加，住院费用不断上升，农村患者的经济压力比较大，增加对患者的经济补偿成为必然。
목적：분석농촌화성진정신분렬증환자적주원비용급기추세，위진일보완선농촌화성진환자적보상정책、감경환자적경제압력제공삼고의거。방법：수집모성정신전과의원2006-2012년주원정신분렬증환자적자료，대주원정황진행통계묘술，병채용시간서렬자회귀이동평균모형（ARIMA）모형대농촌화성진환자적인균주원비용진행단기예측。결과：7년래농촌정신분렬증주원인수증장료75.10%，성진위93.27%；성진환자적인균주원천수명현고우농촌환자적인균주원천수；농촌정신분렬증환자적인균주원비용증장료194.76%，성진증장료248.72%。농촌환자주원비용적예측모형위ARIMA (1,2,1)，성진위ARIMA (1,1,0)；2013년농촌화성진환자인균주원비용기본보지선전적상승추세。결론：농촌화성진주원정신분렬증환자불단증가，주원비용불단상승，농촌환자적경제압력비교대，증가대환자적경제보상성위필연。
Objective: To analyze hospitalization cost and its trend for schizophrenia in rural and urban areas, to provide references for improving the rural and urban compensation policies and reducing the economic pressures of patients with schizophrenia. Methods:Collecting patients with schizophrenia in a hospital from 2006 to 2012. Using ARIMA model to make short-term forecast of average hospitalization cost for rural and urban patients. Results: The growth rate of rural schizophrenia hospital admissions is 75.10%, 93.27%for the urban areas; urban length of stay was significantly higher than in the rural areas; per capita hospitalization costs of patients increased to 194.76%in rural areas, 248.72%for urban areas. The prediction model of rural patients is ARIMA(1,2,1), for urban patients is ARIMA ( 1,1,0); rural and urban hospitalization costs remained the previous upward trend in 2013. Conclusion: The number of schizophrenic inpatients is increasing and hospital costs is rising. The rural patient's future economic pressure is quite large. It is necessary to increase the patient’s financial compensation.