中国卫生经济
中國衛生經濟
중국위생경제
CHINESE HEALTH ECONOMICS
2014年
1期
29-31
,共3页
基本医疗保险%卫生总费用%指数平滑法%系统动力学%建模%辽宁
基本醫療保險%衛生總費用%指數平滑法%繫統動力學%建模%遼寧
기본의료보험%위생총비용%지수평활법%계통동역학%건모%료녕
basic medical insurance%total expenditure on health%exponential smoothing%system dynamics%modeling%Liaoning
目的：利用系统动力学方法就辽宁省2013-2022年间基本医保筹资额及相关指标给予二次指数平滑模拟与预测；方法：先用事后法进行试预测并选择最佳α值，再将二次指数平滑过程映射到系统动力学软件中，得出预测结果；结果：模拟终期省医保资金额及相关指标将增至2013年的2倍左右，个人现金卫生支出将大幅下降；结论：我省整体经济增长较快，基本医疗保障水平稍显不足。
目的：利用繫統動力學方法就遼寧省2013-2022年間基本醫保籌資額及相關指標給予二次指數平滑模擬與預測；方法：先用事後法進行試預測併選擇最佳α值，再將二次指數平滑過程映射到繫統動力學軟件中，得齣預測結果；結果：模擬終期省醫保資金額及相關指標將增至2013年的2倍左右，箇人現金衛生支齣將大幅下降；結論：我省整體經濟增長較快，基本醫療保障水平稍顯不足。
목적：이용계통동역학방법취요녕성2013-2022년간기본의보주자액급상관지표급여이차지수평활모의여예측；방법：선용사후법진행시예측병선택최가α치，재장이차지수평활과정영사도계통동역학연건중，득출예측결과；결과：모의종기성의보자금액급상관지표장증지2013년적2배좌우，개인현금위생지출장대폭하강；결론：아성정체경제증장교쾌，기본의료보장수평초현불족。
Objective: Using system dynamics to provide prospective and simulation of double exponential smoothing on Basic Medical Insurance Fund and related indexes from 2013-2022 in Liaoning. Methods: Using the post testing to select the best value of αand projecting the whole procedure of forecast into the software of system dynamics to get the prospective result. Results: In ending of simulation, the increase of fund and other objects will reach about 2 times as much as those in 2013 , and out-of-pocket in total expenditure on health will be declined greatly. Conclusion: The economy of province is developing fast while Basic Medical Insurance is in relatively lower level.
