CAJ | 학술논문

已有关于我国经济周期非线性特征研究中所选均为 GDP 等单变量数据，而宏观经济景气一致指数（CI）能够更全面地反映经济周期的特征。所以，本文针对我国1991年1月至2012年12月的月度宏观景气一致指数，通过检验，分别建立了两机制和三机制LSTAR模型，探讨了我国经济周期波动的非对称性和持续性以及经济在各个波动阶段之间转换的内在演化机理。实证研究表明，把经济周期阶段划分为紧缩、恢复和扩张三个机制。与划分为紧缩和扩张的两体制相比，在整体拟合效果和对经济增长结构的解释能力方面都有显著提高。因此，本文为我国经济周期的划分和非线性特征分析提供了更科学的方法。
이유관우아국경제주기비선성특정연구중소선균위 GDP 등단변량수거，이굉관경제경기일치지수（CI）능구경전면지반영경제주기적특정。소이，본문침대아국1991년1월지2012년12월적월도굉관경기일치지수，통과검험，분별건립료량궤제화삼궤제LSTAR모형，탐토료아국경제주기파동적비대칭성화지속성이급경제재각개파동계단지간전환적내재연화궤리。실증연구표명，파경제주기계단화분위긴축、회복화확장삼개궤제。여화분위긴축화확장적량체제상비，재정체의합효과화대경제증장결구적해석능력방면도유현저제고。인차，본문위아국경제주기적화분화비선성특정분석제공료경과학적방법。
Usually,single variable is used in analysis of nonlinear characteristic of Chinese business cycle, but Coincident Index(CI) can more fully reflect the characteristics of the business cycle. So, this paper, using Chinese Coincident Index between January 1991 and December 1991, respectively, sets up two and three mechanism of LSTAR model, discussing the asymmetry of Chinese business cycle fluctuation and sustainability, and economic in the internal evolution mechanism of the transformation between the fluctuation phase. Empirical studies show that the economic cycle phase is divided into three: contraction、recovery and expansion mechanism. Compared with the division into contraction and recession regimes, the overall fitting effect and the explanation power structure on economic growth have improved significantly. Therefore, the paper provides a more comprehensive and more scientific method for the division of Chinese business cycle and nonlinear characteristics.