CAJ | 학술논문

采用系统动力学分析了二手房租赁与商品房市场的因果反馈机制。以厦门市2000-2010年的房地产市场交易数据为依据，建立了包含二手房租赁交易的厦门市房地产市场系统动力学模型，预测了厦门市房地产市场的发展趋势，通过改变住房租赁市场中个人所得税、房产税等调控政策因素，模拟了它们对厦门市商品房市场的影响程度，提出了厦门市商品房市场可持续发展的建议与措施。
채용계통동역학분석료이수방조임여상품방시장적인과반궤궤제。이하문시2000-2010년적방지산시장교역수거위의거，건립료포함이수방조임교역적하문시방지산시장계통동역학모형，예측료하문시방지산시장적발전추세，통과개변주방조임시장중개인소득세、방산세등조공정책인소，모의료타문대하문시상품방시장적영향정도，제출료하문시상품방시장가지속발전적건의여조시。
System Dynamics ( SD) was adopted to analyze the interactive mechanism between the second -hand rental hous-ing market and real estate market .Collecting the historical data of the real market from 2000 to 2010 in Xiamen, the system dy-namics model of real estate market which including the second -hand rental housing transactions was set up .The trends of the re-al estate market in Xiamen was also predicted;changing the parameters of the personal income tax , property tax and other sensi-tive policy factors in the second -hand housing rental market subsystem , the sensitiveness to the real estate market in Xiamen was simulated;accordingly the regulatory and recommendations of the real estate market in Xiamen were proposed .