CAJ | 학술논문

利用 LAPS（Local Analysis and Prediction System）系统同化 GPS（Global Positioning System）/PWV（Precipitable Water Vapor）资料，分析GPS/PWV资料对LAPS输出场的影响，并结合 WRF模式，将LAPS输出场作为其初始场进行降水预报，进一步考察GPS/PWV资料对降水预报的作用。选取2009年6月28日湖北地区的一次强降水过程，设计三种方案进行试验。结果表明：同化GPS/PWV资料后对LAPS湿度场有显著的改善，而对高度场及风场的作用则不明显；GPS/PWV资料对区域平均可降水量的影响比雷达资料大一个量级；与此同时，利用多种评分方法对6h累计降水做了检验，分析结果表明同化GPS/PWV资料能够有效地改进 WRF模式的初始场，增加丰富的中小尺度信息，并对随后的确定性预报产生正影响。
이용 LAPS（Local Analysis and Prediction System）계통동화 GPS（Global Positioning System）/PWV（Precipitable Water Vapor）자료，분석GPS/PWV자료대LAPS수출장적영향，병결합 WRF모식，장LAPS수출장작위기초시장진행강수예보，진일보고찰GPS/PWV자료대강수예보적작용。선취2009년6월28일호북지구적일차강강수과정，설계삼충방안진행시험。결과표명：동화GPS/PWV자료후대LAPS습도장유현저적개선，이대고도장급풍장적작용칙불명현；GPS/PWV자료대구역평균가강수량적영향비뢰체자료대일개량급；여차동시，이용다충평분방법대6h루계강수주료검험，분석결과표명동화GPS/PWV자료능구유효지개진 WRF모식적초시장，증가봉부적중소척도신식，병대수후적학정성예보산생정영향。
In order to evaluate the improvement of the GPS/PWV data assimilation to the initial humidity field and precipitation forecast field of numerical model,a series of assimilation experiments were per-formed using the LAPS (Local Analysis and Prediction System)and WRF (Weather Research and Forecas-ting)model.One heavy rainfall process in Hubei Area was taken as the experimental research object.The result shows that the assimilation of GPS/PWV is effective in reducing the error of PW in the LAPS hu-midity field,however its impact on potential height and wind fields is not so notable.The impacts of GPS/PWV are greater than radar data by comparing the total precipitable water analyzed by LAPS in different schemes.Different weather forecast scores show that the initial moisture field in WRF is significantly im-proved by using GPS/PWV data,and the improved moisture field in initial condition leads to positive effect on the forecast of rainfall.