交通信息与安全
交通信息與安全
교통신식여안전
JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT INFORMATION AND SAFETY
2014年
1期
117-121
,共5页
单征%宋瑞%李婷婷%陈立扬
單徵%宋瑞%李婷婷%陳立颺
단정%송서%리정정%진립양
城市轨道交通%瓶颈识别%累计 Logistic 回归%拥堵强度%Anylogic 仿真
城市軌道交通%瓶頸識彆%纍計 Logistic 迴歸%擁堵彊度%Anylogic 倣真
성시궤도교통%병경식별%루계 Logistic 회귀%옹도강도%Anylogic 방진
urban rail transit%bottleneck identification%cumulative Logistic regression%congestion level%Anylogic simulation
城市轨道交通车站集散能力瓶颈会导致车站内部分区域出现严重的客流拥堵现象,降低车站集散效能,影响乘客出行效率和安全。在分析城市轨道交通车站集散能力瓶颈内涵和成因的基础上,提出了基于拥堵强度的瓶颈识别方法。构建基于累计 Logistic 回归的拥堵强度判别模型,结合调查数据对模型进行参数标定和验证。以北京地铁东直门站为例,结合 Anylogic 动态仿真,验证了模型的有效性,表明该模型能够准确、实时地识别出城市轨道交通车站集散能力瓶颈。
城市軌道交通車站集散能力瓶頸會導緻車站內部分區域齣現嚴重的客流擁堵現象,降低車站集散效能,影響乘客齣行效率和安全。在分析城市軌道交通車站集散能力瓶頸內涵和成因的基礎上,提齣瞭基于擁堵彊度的瓶頸識彆方法。構建基于纍計 Logistic 迴歸的擁堵彊度判彆模型,結閤調查數據對模型進行參數標定和驗證。以北京地鐵東直門站為例,結閤 Anylogic 動態倣真,驗證瞭模型的有效性,錶明該模型能夠準確、實時地識彆齣城市軌道交通車站集散能力瓶頸。
성시궤도교통차참집산능력병경회도치차참내부분구역출현엄중적객류옹도현상,강저차참집산효능,영향승객출행효솔화안전。재분석성시궤도교통차참집산능력병경내함화성인적기출상,제출료기우옹도강도적병경식별방법。구건기우루계 Logistic 회귀적옹도강도판별모형,결합조사수거대모형진행삼수표정화험증。이북경지철동직문참위례,결합 Anylogic 동태방진,험증료모형적유효성,표명해모형능구준학、실시지식별출성시궤도교통차참집산능력병경。
The bottleneck for the gathering and distributing capacity of urban rail transit station leads to serious passenger traffic congestion and reduces the distribution performance of stations ,which affects the efficiency and safety of passenger travel .Based on the full analysis of the connotation and cause of the gathering and distributing capacity bottle-neck of urban rail transit station ,the bottleneck identification method based on the congestion level is put forward .First-ly ,the cumulative Logistic regression based on a congestion level measurement model is built .Then ,the model is calibra-ted and validated with the survey data .Finally ,by taking Beijing Dongzhimen Rail Transit Station as the study site ,the validity of the model is verified by using Anylogic dynamic simulation .Results show that the model can accurately reflect the bottleneck of the gathering and distributing capacity of urban rail transit station in real time .