CAJ | 학술논문

本文以1996-2011年间45个国家的宏观经济数据和惠誉的主权信用评级数据，运用一般面板线性回归和有序概率模型研究了我国的主权信用评级是否被低估的问题。结果发现，国际评级机构并没有刻意低估我国的主权信用评级，其对我国主权信用评级的测算方法并不明显有别于其他国家。但是，由于评级体系的倾向性和我国地方政府债务不透明等原因，导致我国的主权信用评级客观上存在被低估的可能。
본문이1996-2011년간45개국가적굉관경제수거화혜예적주권신용평급수거，운용일반면판선성회귀화유서개솔모형연구료아국적주권신용평급시부피저고적문제。결과발현，국제평급궤구병몰유각의저고아국적주권신용평급，기대아국주권신용평급적측산방법병불명현유별우기타국가。단시，유우평급체계적경향성화아국지방정부채무불투명등원인，도치아국적주권신용평급객관상존재피저고적가능。
This paper uses the macro-economic data and Fitch sovereign credit ratings data and adopts general pan-el linear regression and orderly probability model to study whether China’s sovereign credit rating has been underrated. The result shows that international rating agency hasn’t intentionally underrated China’s sovereign credit rating, and there is no obvious difference between its calculation method on China and that on other countries. However, due to causes such as inclination of rating agency and opacity of China’s local government debt, there is possibility that the sovereign debt rating of China might be objectively underrated.