CAJ | 학술논문

针对上市公司 ST政策，基于公司连续2年净利润为负的特征，提出了预测上市公司财务困境的远期模型。采用2007-2012年的数据进行实证检验，计算了公司 ST的远期概率。研究结果表明，一年期定期存款利率、上证指数一年期回报率、资产收益率、负债比率、GDP是影响上市公司陷入财务困境的主要因素，提出的远期模型为投资者判断上市公司财务状况提供了一种有效方法。
침대상시공사 ST정책，기우공사련속2년정리윤위부적특정，제출료예측상시공사재무곤경적원기모형。채용2007-2012년적수거진행실증검험，계산료공사 ST적원기개솔。연구결과표명，일년기정기존관리솔、상증지수일년기회보솔、자산수익솔、부채비솔、GDP시영향상시공사함입재무곤경적주요인소，제출적원기모형위투자자판단상시공사재무상황제공료일충유효방법。
Based on the characteristic about the negative profit in continuous two years in view of the policy on the ST,a for-ward dynamic forecasting model on financial distress of Chinese listed companies is proposed.The forward probability of ST is computed to implement some empirical tests by using the yearly data from 2007 to 2012.The result shows that the impor-tant factors impacting the financial distress of Chinese listed firms are deposit rate,ROA,debt ratio,return rate of stock markets and GDP.The proposed model is one of the effective methods to judge the financial situations of the listed compa-nies for the investors.