CAJ | 학술논문

提采用香山公园逐日黄栌树叶变色率以及相应的气象资料研究了黄栌树叶变色的气象条件，并建立了香山红叶变色日的气象统计预测模型。（1）黄栌树叶变色与临近几天的温度变化关系非常密切，根据气象条件阈值回报变色日的可信度比较高。（2）黄栌树叶平均变色日是10月4-5日，最早为9月27日，最晚为10月13日。（3）黄栌树叶变色日与7月的最低气温、平均气温和最高气温均存在显著的负相关。值得注意的是，黄栌树叶变色日的年际增量与7月降水的年际增量之间存在显著的正相关。（4）选择7月的平均温度和最高温度的年际增量作为预报因子建立模型，1999-2010年回报的平均误差为3 d左右。（5）通过2011年独立样本检验和2012年预报试验的结果，可以认为香山红叶变色日气象统计模型具有比较高的准确率和可操作性。
제채용향산공완축일황로수협변색솔이급상응적기상자료연구료황로수협변색적기상조건，병건립료향산홍협변색일적기상통계예측모형。（1）황로수협변색여림근궤천적온도변화관계비상밀절，근거기상조건역치회보변색일적가신도비교고。（2）황로수협평균변색일시10월4-5일，최조위9월27일，최만위10월13일。（3）황로수협변색일여7월적최저기온、평균기온화최고기온균존재현저적부상관。치득주의적시，황로수협변색일적년제증량여7월강수적년제증량지간존재현저적정상관。（4）선택7월적평균온도화최고온도적년제증량작위예보인자건립모형，1999-2010년회보적평균오차위3 d좌우。（5）통과2011년독립양본검험화2012년예보시험적결과，가이인위향산홍협변색일기상통계모형구유비교고적준학솔화가조작성。
Based on daily discoloration percentage and meteorological datasets,the meteorological condi-tions of cotinus coggygria leaves discoloration (CCLD)are studied and the staticstical prediction model is built.The results are as follows:(1 )CCLD has a close relationship with temperature variation in the near several days,and the reliability of CCLD-Day forecast by meteorological threshold is high.(2)The mean CCLD-Day is between October 4 and 5,the earliest CCLD-Day is September 27,and the latest one is Octo-ber 1 3 .(3 )There is significant negative correlation between CCLD-Day and the mean temperature (also minimum temperature and maximum temperature)in July.It should be noticed that the annual increment of CCLD-Day has significant positive correlation with that of precipitation in July.(4)Choosing the annual increment of mean and maximum temperature in July as predictors,the statistical prediction model based on meteorology is built,and the mean error is around 3 days.(5)According to the 2011 independent sam-ple verification and the 2012 forecast experiment,the prediction model of CCLD-Day is proved to be usa-ble.