CAJ | 학술논문

提文章利用中尺度模式 Weather Research and Forecasting Model（WRF）3．2．1版本及National Centers for Environ-mental Prediction（NCEP）分析资料，研究了陆面变量（土壤湿度、土壤温度）和陆面参数（植被覆盖率）初始场随机扰动对长江中下游暴雨预报的影响并进行了集合预报试验。试验结果表明，短期暴雨过程对陆面变量（参数）扰动是敏感的；陆面变量（参数）初始场扰动影响降水的时间尺度小于10 h甚至可以小于6 h。从影响机理上来看，陆面变量（参数）扰动首先改变地表的潜热通量和感热通量，而地表通量的改变会通过陆气相互作用对局地大气的温、压、湿、风产生较大影响，从而对暴雨的强度和落区产生较大影响。集合预报结果表明，利用陆面变量（参数）扰动制作集合预报，预报的集合平均结果要好于控制预报的结果，且比集合成员稳定可靠，降水概率预报可以提供一些有用的信息，对预报强降水有一定的指示意义。在初值集合预报中，以这些参数或变量的扰动来引进集合成员是十分有意义的。
제문장이용중척도모식 Weather Research and Forecasting Model（WRF）3．2．1판본급National Centers for Environ-mental Prediction（NCEP）분석자료，연구료륙면변량（토양습도、토양온도）화륙면삼수（식피복개솔）초시장수궤우동대장강중하유폭우예보적영향병진행료집합예보시험。시험결과표명，단기폭우과정대륙면변량（삼수）우동시민감적；륙면변량（삼수）초시장우동영향강수적시간척도소우10 h심지가이소우6 h。종영향궤리상래간，륙면변량（삼수）우동수선개변지표적잠열통량화감열통량，이지표통량적개변회통과륙기상호작용대국지대기적온、압、습、풍산생교대영향，종이대폭우적강도화락구산생교대영향。집합예보결과표명，이용륙면변량（삼수）우동제작집합예보，예보적집합평균결과요호우공제예보적결과，차비집합성원은정가고，강수개솔예보가이제공일사유용적신식，대예보강강수유일정적지시의의。재초치집합예보중，이저사삼수혹변량적우동래인진집합성원시십분유의의적。
The simulation of a heavy rainfall event that occurred in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River was conducted to examine the effects of perturbations of land surface variables (soil moisture and soil temperature)and land surface parameter (vegetation fraction)in the ensemble forecast using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)Version 3 .2 .1 and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)reanalysis data.The results showed that land surface variable (or parameter)perturbations have a large impact on short-term simulation of rainstorm.The time scale that the land surface variable (or pa-rameter)perturbation affects precipitation is lower than 10 h and the smallest time scale is lower than 6 h. From the point of influence mechanism,disturbance of the land surface variables (parameters)changes the surface latent heat flux and sensible heat flux firstly,which has great impact on the local atmospheric tem-perature,pressure,humidity and wind field by the land-atmosphere interaction,and thus affects the inten-sity and distribution of the heavy rainfall.The ensemble average result is better than the control forecast, which is more stable and credible than the single ensemble members.The analysis of the precipitation probability forecast can provide some useful information about the precipitation forecast especially to heavy rainfall.Overall,the initial perturbation of land surface variables and land surface parameter perturbations are significant to the initial ensemble forecast.