CAJ | 학술논문

基于LMDI模型，分别研究碳排放系数、经济发展、能源强度、能源消费结构、产业结构、人口六个因素对云南省生产活动的碳排放的贡献量和贡献率。结果表明，经济发展是驱动云南省碳排放增加的最主要因素，人口规模和产业结构也是碳排放量增加的驱动因素；能源强度则是抑制碳排量增加的最主要影响因素，碳排放系数和能源消费结构因素也对减少碳排放起着一定的作用，但不是很明显。说明云南省由于处于工业化发展时期，工业发展对能源的消费需求大，影响因素中的驱动因素对碳排放量的贡献率大于抑制因素，在短时期内云南省的碳排放仍将持续增长。因此，云南省需要改变经济发展方式，坚持计划生育的基本国策，提高能源利用效率和促进产业结构与能源消费结构的转变。
기우LMDI모형，분별연구탄배방계수、경제발전、능원강도、능원소비결구、산업결구、인구륙개인소대운남성생산활동적탄배방적공헌량화공헌솔。결과표명，경제발전시구동운남성탄배방증가적최주요인소，인구규모화산업결구야시탄배방량증가적구동인소；능원강도칙시억제탄배량증가적최주요영향인소，탄배방계수화능원소비결구인소야대감소탄배방기착일정적작용，단불시흔명현。설명운남성유우처우공업화발전시기，공업발전대능원적소비수구대，영향인소중적구동인소대탄배방량적공헌솔대우억제인소，재단시기내운남성적탄배방잉장지속증장。인차，운남성수요개변경제발전방식，견지계화생육적기본국책，제고능원이용효솔화촉진산업결구여능원소비결구적전변。
This paper uses LMDI model to study the contribution and contribution rate of carbon emissions coef-ficient, economic level, energy intensity, energy structure, industrial structure, population to carbon emissions of production activities in Yunnan province respectively .As the results shown that economic development is the most important factor of carbon emissions increase in Yunnan province , population scale and industrial structure are also the driving factors of carbon emissions increase; Energy intensity is the main factor to curb carbon emissions in-crease , carbon emission coefficient and the energy consumption structure also play a role to reduce carbon emis -sions, but not very obvious.It indicates that Yunnan province is in the period of industrialization , the energy con-sumption demand for industrial development is big ,meanwhile ,the contribution rate of the driving factors to carbon emissions is greater than the inhibiting factors , in a short period , the carbon emissions of Yunnan energy consump-tion will continue to grow.Therefore ,to cut CO2 emissions in Yunnan province , it needs to change the pattern of e-conomic development , adhere to the basic state policy of family planning , improve energy efficiency , promote the transformation of industry structure and energy consumption structure.