CAJ | 학술논문

研究交通流演化规律对交通安全措施的实施具有重要意义。交通流的演化过程一般可分为交通流的量变与质变。鉴于交通自由流状态、拥挤流状态及间歇流状态的分布均可由伽马分布表达，利用伽马分布及其变点检验算法进行变点搜索及检验，确定变点前后的交通流状态。结合柯尔莫哥洛夫-斯米尔诺夫检验方法对观测数据是否服从伽马分布进行拟合优度检验。为较直观说明交通流的演化规律，结合极大似然估计，给出了适应交通流演化的伽马分布形状参数估计。实验结果表明，伽马分布形状参数估计的研究是探索交通流演化规律的有利途径。
연구교통류연화규률대교통안전조시적실시구유중요의의。교통류적연화과정일반가분위교통류적량변여질변。감우교통자유류상태、옹제류상태급간헐류상태적분포균가유가마분포표체，이용가마분포급기변점검험산법진행변점수색급검험，학정변점전후적교통류상태。결합가이막가락부-사미이낙부검험방법대관측수거시부복종가마분포진행의합우도검험。위교직관설명교통류적연화규률，결합겁대사연고계，급출료괄응교통류연화적가마분포형상삼수고계。실험결과표명，가마분포형상삼수고계적연구시탐색교통류연화규률적유리도경。
It is significant to research traffic flow evolvement for the traffic safety implementation. The evolution process of traffic flow is generally classified as quantitative change and qualitative change. Distributions of free, congested and intermittent flow all can be replaced by gamma distribution. So, in this paper, the traffic flow states before and after change-point are confirmed by searching and testing change-point with gamma distribution and change-point testing method. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test method is used to test whether or not the observation data is in line with gamma distribution. Gamma distribution shape parameter adapting to traffic flow evolvement is estimated with maximum likely estimation method in order to explain evolvement directly. The experimental results indicate that studying gamma distribution shape parameter is a favorable way to research traffic flow evolvement.