吉林水利
吉林水利
길림수리
JI LIN WATER RESOURCES
2014年
1期
24-28
,共5页
事件树法%溃坝概率%破坏模式%地震破坏
事件樹法%潰壩概率%破壞模式%地震破壞
사건수법%궤패개솔%파배모식%지진파배
event tree method%probability of dam failure%failure mode%earthquake damage
溃坝是一种低概率、高危害的社会致灾因素，一旦失事其危害十分巨大。事件树法在溃坝风险分析中应用较广。它既可以定性地了解整个事件的动态变化过程，又可以定量计算出各阶段的概率，最终了解事故发展过程中各种状态的发生概率。结合四川省安县曹家水库现状，利用事件树法对水库进行溃坝风险评估，并根据风险要素，总结出事件树法对分析小型震损水库溃坝概率的优越性。
潰壩是一種低概率、高危害的社會緻災因素，一旦失事其危害十分巨大。事件樹法在潰壩風險分析中應用較廣。它既可以定性地瞭解整箇事件的動態變化過程，又可以定量計算齣各階段的概率，最終瞭解事故髮展過程中各種狀態的髮生概率。結閤四川省安縣曹傢水庫現狀，利用事件樹法對水庫進行潰壩風險評估，併根據風險要素，總結齣事件樹法對分析小型震損水庫潰壩概率的優越性。
궤패시일충저개솔、고위해적사회치재인소，일단실사기위해십분거대。사건수법재궤패풍험분석중응용교엄。타기가이정성지료해정개사건적동태변화과정，우가이정량계산출각계단적개솔，최종료해사고발전과정중각충상태적발생개솔。결합사천성안현조가수고현상，이용사건수법대수고진행궤패풍험평고，병근거풍험요소，총결출사건수법대분석소형진손수고궤패개솔적우월성。
The dam is a low-probability,high-hazard social causal factors,once the harm is huge crash.Event tree method has broader application in risk analysis of dam failure.It can be qualitatively understand the dy-namic process of the entire event,and calculate the probability of each stage,and ultimately to understand the probability of an accident occurring during the development of the various states.Combined with the status of Caojia reservoir located in An County,Sichuan Province,using the event tree method assessed the risk of the dam failure,and summed up the excellence of the method for the analysis of dam failure caused by small earthquake.
