CAJ | 학술논문

为对碳排放与经济系统各要素之间关系进行比较系统的观察,本文尝试建立一个包含有环境要素的增长核算框架。立足于这个分析性框架,本文揭示了重庆市经济系统中各要素的传导路径,并对减排冲击和未来经济增长前景给出了说明,主要研究结论如下：（1）经济增长单向引致了碳排放,而由于人力资本的作用,投资与碳排放不存在因果关系;（2）近25年来,在重庆市10.6%的平均经济增长率中,碳排放贡献点数为1.68%,资本投入是经济增长的主要贡献;（3）低碳约束对经济增长影响很大,为保持经济持续稳定增长,短期内投资幅度不应该消减,长期来看发展人力资本是均衡的增长路径。
위대탄배방여경제계통각요소지간관계진행비교계통적관찰,본문상시건립일개포함유배경요소적증장핵산광가。립족우저개분석성광가,본문게시료중경시경제계통중각요소적전도로경,병대감배충격화미래경제증장전경급출료설명,주요연구결론여하：（1）경제증장단향인치료탄배방,이유우인력자본적작용,투자여탄배방불존재인과관계;（2）근25년래,재중경시10.6%적평균경제증장솔중,탄배방공헌점수위1.68%,자본투입시경제증장적주요공헌;（3）저탄약속대경제증장영향흔대,위보지경제지속은정증장,단기내투자폭도불응해소감,장기래간발전인력자본시균형적증장로경。
For the system on carbon emissions and economic relations between the various elements to engage in systemat-ic observation,this paper attempts to establish a growth with environmental factors accounting framework.Based on this ana-lytical framework,the paper based on Chongqing elements of the economic system in the conduction path was revealed,and the emission reduction impact and future growth prospects given the description of the main conclusions are as follows：（1） Economic growth caused by a one-way carbon emissions,and because the role of human capital investment and there is no causal relationship between carbon emissions;（2）Nearly 25 years,an average of 10.6 percent growth in carbon emissions con-tribute to about 1.68% points,as the main contribution to capital investment;（3）Low carbon constraint great impact on eco-nomic growth,in order to maintain steady economic growth,short-term investment rate should not reduce the long term to de-velop human capital is more suitable for the growth path.