CAJ | 학술논문

对电力变压器进行经济寿命评估，可以有效保障电网安全运行、提高企业经济效益。以全寿命周期成本理论为指导，将环境成本和社会责任成本纳入变压器全寿命周期成本中，建立了更为全面的变压器全寿命周期成本模型。针对评估参数随机、模糊不确定性共存或交叉存在的特点，引入能同时处理这两种不确定性的随机模糊理论处理评估参数，建立了新的变压器经济寿命评估模型。此模型不但可以得到变压器经济寿命期望值，还能够得到不同置信水平下的经济寿命区间以及相同跨度的区间中机会测度最大的经济寿命区间。实例结果表明，将随机模糊理论应用到变压器经济寿命评估中是有效可行的，可以为决策者提供更为详细和多元化的信息，具有一定的参考价值。
대전력변압기진행경제수명평고，가이유효보장전망안전운행、제고기업경제효익。이전수명주기성본이론위지도，장배경성본화사회책임성본납입변압기전수명주기성본중，건립료경위전면적변압기전수명주기성본모형。침대평고삼수수궤、모호불학정성공존혹교차존재적특점，인입능동시처리저량충불학정성적수궤모호이론처리평고삼수，건립료신적변압기경제수명평고모형。차모형불단가이득도변압기경제수명기망치，환능구득도불동치신수평하적경제수명구간이급상동과도적구간중궤회측도최대적경제수명구간。실례결과표명，장수궤모호이론응용도변압기경제수명평고중시유효가행적，가이위결책자제공경위상세화다원화적신식，구유일정적삼고개치。
Evaluating economic life of power transformers can effectively guarantee the safe operation of grid and improve economic efficiency. Full life-cycle cost theory used as a guide, environmental costs and social responsibility costs taken into consideration, a more comprehensive full life-cycle cost model of the transformer is established. Since evaluation parameters have random and fuzzy uncertainty, random fuzzy theory processing evaluation parameters are introduced to handle the two kinds of uncertainty simultaneously and a new assessment of the economic life of the transformer model is established. This model not only can get economic life expectancy of the transformers, but also can get the economic life interval under different confidence levels and interval whose chance measurement is the biggest under the same economic life span. An example result shows that the random and fuzzy theory applied to the transformer economic life assessment is feasible and effective, and it can provide more detailed and diversified information for decision makers and has a certain reference value.