CAJ | 학술논문

分析了32个CMIP5模式对南海历史海表温度（SST）的模拟能力和不同排放情景下未来SST变化的预估。通过检验各气候模式对南海历史SST增温趋势和均方差的模拟，发现大部分模式都能较好地模拟出南海20世纪历史SST的基本特征和变化规律，但也有部分模式的模拟存在较大偏差。尽管这些模拟偏差较大的模式对SST多模式集合平均的影响不大，但会增加未来情景预估的不确定性。剔除15个模式后，分析了南海SST在RCP26、RCP45和RCP85三种排放情景下的变化趋势，发现在未来百年呈明显的增温趋势，多模式集合平均的增温趋势分别为0．42、1．50和3．30℃/（100 a）。这些增温趋势在空间上变化不大，但随时间并不是均匀变化的。在前两种排放情景下，21世纪前期的增温趋势明显强于后期，而在RCP85情景下，21世纪后期的增温趋势强于前期。
분석료32개CMIP5모식대남해역사해표온도（SST）적모의능력화불동배방정경하미래SST변화적예고。통과검험각기후모식대남해역사SST증온추세화균방차적모의，발현대부분모식도능교호지모의출남해20세기역사SST적기본특정화변화규률，단야유부분모식적모의존재교대편차。진관저사모의편차교대적모식대SST다모식집합평균적영향불대，단회증가미래정경예고적불학정성。척제15개모식후，분석료남해SST재RCP26、RCP45화RCP85삼충배방정경하적변화추세，발현재미래백년정명현적증온추세，다모식집합평균적증온추세분별위0．42、1．50화3．30℃/（100 a）。저사증온추세재공간상변화불대，단수시간병불시균균변화적。재전량충배방정경하，21세기전기적증온추세명현강우후기，이재RCP85정경하，21세기후기적증온추세강우전기。
The simulation abilities of 32 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)climate models to the historical sea surface temperature (SST)in the South China Sea are evaluated by verifying its long-term linear trend and standard deviation.The projections of the SST for the 21st century under different RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway)emission scenarios are analyzed.The results show that most of the models can well repro-duce the primary characteristic and change of the historical SST in the South China Sea.However,the simulations of the historical SST are unsatisfactory for 15 climate models.These models are excluded in evaluating the RCP forecasts for minimizing the uncertainty of the forecast results,while their effects to the multi-model ensemble mean are not so significant.Other models show that the SST in the South China Sea will be significant warming in the 21st century,whose linear trends of the multi-model ensemble mean are 0. 42,1. 50 and 3. 30℃/(100 a)under RCP26,RCP45,and RCP85 scenarios,respectively.The changes of these trends are relatively small in space,but not with time.The warming in the early 21st century is significantly stronger than that in the late 21st century un-der RCP26 and RCP45scenarios,while the opposite under RCP85 scenario.