科技和产业
科技和產業
과기화산업
SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY AND INDUSTRY
2012年
10期
122-126
,共5页
消费的平滑性%收入一消费关系%相关性UC模型%VECM模型
消費的平滑性%收入一消費關繫%相關性UC模型%VECM模型
소비적평활성%수입일소비관계%상관성UC모형%VECM모형
consumption smoothing%income-consumption model%related Unobservable Component model%VECM model
我国居民消费的平滑性是扩大内需的政策产生效果的一个障碍。本文利用“相关性UC模型”来研究收入一消费关系，试图利用该模型中消费、总收入和持久收入之间新息的相关性来验证我国居民消费行为更符合哪一种消费行为理论。最后实证结果说明，凯恩斯主义消费理论，习惯形成理论和预防性储蓄，持久收入假说都不能完美的解释我国居民的消费行为。相对来说，其消费行为更接近于持久收入理论。
我國居民消費的平滑性是擴大內需的政策產生效果的一箇障礙。本文利用“相關性UC模型”來研究收入一消費關繫，試圖利用該模型中消費、總收入和持久收入之間新息的相關性來驗證我國居民消費行為更符閤哪一種消費行為理論。最後實證結果說明，凱恩斯主義消費理論，習慣形成理論和預防性儲蓄，持久收入假說都不能完美的解釋我國居民的消費行為。相對來說，其消費行為更接近于持久收入理論。
아국거민소비적평활성시확대내수적정책산생효과적일개장애。본문이용“상관성UC모형”래연구수입일소비관계，시도이용해모형중소비、총수입화지구수입지간신식적상관성래험증아국거민소비행위경부합나일충소비행위이론。최후실증결과설명，개은사주의소비이론，습관형성이론화예방성저축，지구수입가설도불능완미적해석아국거민적소비행위。상대래설，기소비행위경접근우지구수입이론。
The smoothness of the consumer in China is an obstacle to the policy of expanding domestic demanding have an effect. In this paper, the related UC model to study the Income- consumption relations, in an attempt to verify the model between consumption, income and permanent in- come in the interest of consumer behavior more in line with what kind of consumer behavior theory. The last empirical results indicate that the Keynesian Theory of Consumption, habit formation theory and precautionary savings, the permanent income hypothesis cannot be perfect to ex- plain the consumption behavior of Chinese residents. Relatively speaking, their consumption behaviors are closer to the permanent income theory.
