CAJ | 학술논문

目前高危行业安全风险评价所使用的方法大多主观性较强，因此很大程度上影响了实用效果。本文就广为使用的LEC评价法进行了讨论，认为其3种风险因素的划分较为完整地概括了作业情况的系统风险，具有明确的理论意义。但在实用性方面，带有明显的缺陷，直接引用其对高危行业的风险进行评价将会使结果有失客观。基于此，以某高危行业安全风险评价项目为基础，对经典的LEC法进行了实质性的改进：建立充分利用实际数据的模型，以尽力减少衡量环节，保持方法的客观性和结果的真实性；同时，采用基期结果为相对衡量“标准”以有效地避免传统方法中绝对衡量“标准”的失真性。项目验收结果表明，本模型探索出了一种更为客观有效的高危行业风险评价方法。
목전고위행업안전풍험평개소사용적방법대다주관성교강，인차흔대정도상영향료실용효과。본문취엄위사용적LEC평개법진행료토론，인위기3충풍험인소적화분교위완정지개괄료작업정황적계통풍험，구유명학적이론의의。단재실용성방면，대유명현적결함，직접인용기대고위행업적풍험진행평개장회사결과유실객관。기우차，이모고위행업안전풍험평개항목위기출，대경전적LEC법진행료실질성적개진：건립충분이용실제수거적모형，이진력감소형량배절，보지방법적객관성화결과적진실성；동시，채용기기결과위상대형량“표준”이유효지피면전통방법중절대형량“표준”적실진성。항목험수결과표명，본모형탐색출료일충경위객관유효적고위행업풍험평개방법。
At present the methods used in high-danger industries risk evaluation are mainly too subjective and largely influence the practical effect. This paper discuses the widely-used LEC method and holds that its three kinds of factors (Likelihood, Exposure, and Consequence) summarize system's risks completely, and it has a theoretical significance. But this method has some obvious defects in practical aspect, direct reference to high-danger industries will make results deviating from facts. Based on a specific risk evaluation project, we modify the LEC method and get some substantial improvements. making full use of the actual data to objectify the model to reduce the measurable aspects and to ensure the objectivity of the method and the truth of results; using the base-period standard as a "relative standard" to avoid the no-effective information in "absolute standard". The result shows that the modified risk evaluation method is suitable and effective for high-danger industries.