CAJ | 학술논문

本文在合理的简化假设下,用logistic模型预测出山东省职工未来的年平均工资.继而由某企业2009年各年龄段月平均工资结合全省职工的年平均工资增长率,估算出未来该企业各个年龄段的月平均工资.根据养老金的计算方法,我们分别建立了刚退休时养老金的计算模型、退休若干年后养老金的收支平衡模型,分析出不同缴费情况下养老金的替代率、养老金的收支平衡与缺口情况,最后提出了既达到目标替代率又收支平衡应采取的措施.
본문재합리적간화가설하,용logistic모형예측출산동성직공미래적년평균공자.계이유모기업2009년각년령단월평균공자결합전성직공적년평균공자증장솔,고산출미래해기업각개년령단적월평균공자.근거양로금적계산방법,아문분별건립료강퇴휴시양로금적계산모형、퇴휴약간년후양로금적수지평형모형,분석출불동격비정황하양로금적체대솔、양로금적수지평형여결구정황,최후제출료기체도목표체대솔우수지평형응채취적조시.
Under the reasonable simplifying assumptions, this paper uses logistic model to predict the average annual salary of Shandong Province's workers, then Combines a company's average monthlywageof all age groupsin 2009 withthe average annual growthrate ofwagesofthisprovince, we estimate the company's future average monthly wage of all age groups. Based on the pension calculation method,we set up the pension calculation model and break-even model of Retirement for some years, then we analyzes the replacement rate,break even and the gap of the pension under the different payments. Finally, we propose the measures to achieve the target replacement rate and breakeven.