CAJ | 학술논문

当前大型工程项目的气候可行性论证需要更加精细的评估结论,以满足工程规划、设计和运营等气象防灾减灾的需要。利用1∶25万基础地理信息资料和气象部门在沿湖、沿江、沿海和内陆地区多个大型桥梁工程、核电工程、风电工程等大型工程项目气候可行性论证工作中积累的工程短期气象观测资料和邻近气象站同期同步观测资料、历史气候资料,探讨大型工程气候可行性论证的工程区气候要素极值计算方法和有效的空间插值计算方案,初步建立了基于空间信息分析方法的工程气候可行性论证和系统流程。实际应用表明：采用空间趋势面分析和空间相关分析、空间回归等分析手段的工程气候论证,考虑了项目周边地区气象要素的空间相关性和地形下垫面状况等地理信息,并且具有比常规论证手段更高的计算分辨率,在结合广义极值分析方法后,可以满足大型工程对气象评价的精细化需求。
당전대형공정항목적기후가행성론증수요경가정세적평고결론,이만족공정규화、설계화운영등기상방재감재적수요。이용1∶25만기출지리신식자료화기상부문재연호、연강、연해화내륙지구다개대형교량공정、핵전공정、풍전공정등대형공정항목기후가행성론증공작중적루적공정단기기상관측자료화린근기상참동기동보관측자료、역사기후자료,탐토대형공정기후가행성론증적공정구기후요소겁치계산방법화유효적공간삽치계산방안,초보건립료기우공간신식분석방법적공정기후가행성론증화계통류정。실제응용표명：채용공간추세면분석화공간상관분석、공간회귀등분석수단적공정기후론증,고필료항목주변지구기상요소적공간상관성화지형하점면상황등지리신식,병차구유비상규론증수단경고적계산분변솔,재결합엄의겁치분석방법후,가이만족대형공정대기상평개적정세화수구。
The current climate feasibility demonstration report needs more precise assessment conclusions in order to meet the needs of the meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation for the large-scale projects in planning,design and operational phases.Base on the 1∶ 250000 basic geography information,the short-time meteorological observation data accumulated by the climate feasibility demonstration report of some projects such as a major bridge engineering,a nuclear power engineering,a wind power engineering and so on along the lake,river and sea and at inland area,simultaneously observational data and the historical climate data nearby weather stations,the calculation method of the extreme value of climate factors and the effective spatial interpolation scheme of projects were investigated.The meteorological evaluation method of projects and system workflow were established based on the spatial information analysis method.The application results indicate that the climate feasibility demonstration method based on a spatial trend analysis,a spatial correlation analysis and a spatial regression analysis etc.considers the geography information such as the spatial correlation of meteorological elements,topography and underlying surface and so on around the project area and it has a higher calculation resolution compared with the conventional method.Combining with a generalized extreme analysis method,the method could meet the fine needs of meteorological evaluation of a large project.