CAJ | 학술논문

研究了部分经济指标与贸易差额之间的非线性关系，该非线性模型采用随机森林回归模型，同时，得出了各个指标的影响因子．实验结果表明：我国的贸易差额主要受到M2，GDP，CPI，外汇储备，M1和工业总产值的影响，研究可供政府决策参考．
연구료부분경제지표여무역차액지간적비선성관계，해비선성모형채용수궤삼림회귀모형，동시，득출료각개지표적영향인자．실험결과표명：아국적무역차액주요수도M2，GDP，CPI，외회저비，M1화공업총산치적영향，연구가공정부결책삼고．
This paper studies the nonlinear relation between the balance of trade and the affection factors. The nonlinear regression model for the balance of trade is constructed by random forest (RF) method. Moreover, the ranking of importance for affection factors is given out. The empirical results in this paper reveal the balance of trade in China is affected mainly by M2, GDP, CPI, Exchange reserves, M1 and Gross Industrial output, which is helpful for the government decision-making.