CAJ | 학술논문

提近年来，在气候变化和极端天气气候事件频发的背景下，干旱等农业气象灾害的频发已对我国尤其是河北省的粮食生产和农业发展的可持续性带来了严重威胁。选择或构建合适的农业干旱灾害风险指标开展干旱风险区划，并在此基础上进行灾害的保险费率厘定对于丰富农业保险模式，促进农业保险经营的稳定和发展具有重要的应用价值。本文基于作物水分亏缺率指数、降水距平百分率指数和抗旱指数等指标，构建干旱综合风险指数并开展风险区划研究；利用修正后的纯保险费率，得到适用于本研究区的保险费率厘定模型，探寻一种能较全面改善目前农业保险经营弊端的保险模式，从而实现冬小麦农业保险的持续健康发展。
제근년래，재기후변화화겁단천기기후사건빈발적배경하，간한등농업기상재해적빈발이대아국우기시하북성적양식생산화농업발전적가지속성대래료엄중위협。선택혹구건합괄적농업간한재해풍험지표개전간한풍험구화，병재차기출상진행재해적보험비솔전정대우봉부농업보험모식，촉진농업보험경영적은정화발전구유중요적응용개치。본문기우작물수분우결솔지수、강수거평백분솔지수화항한지수등지표，구건간한종합풍험지수병개전풍험구화연구；이용수정후적순보험비솔，득도괄용우본연구구적보험비솔전정모형，탐심일충능교전면개선목전농업보험경영폐단적보험모식，종이실현동소맥농업보험적지속건강발전。
In recent years,in the context of climate change and extreme climate events,drought agro-mete-orological disasters which occur frequently has taken a serious threat for our food production and agricul-tural sustainable development.Selecting or building suitable agricultural drought disaster risk indicators for drought risk zoning,and on this basis,determining premium rates is very valuable in enriching agricul-tural insurance model and promoting the stability and development of the agricultural insurance business. Based on the natural water deficit rate index,precipitation anomalies of the percentage rate and drought in-dex,this paper builds drought comprehensive risk index,and carries out drought risk zoning study.Then, using the revised premium rate,the premium ratemaking model applicable to the study area is worked out so as to search for a more comprehensive improvement of the current agricultural insurance business insur-ance model,and achieve the sustainable and healthy development of the winter wheat agricultural insur-ance.