CAJ | 학술논문

提本文针对有水位资料，但没有流量观测的流域，同时又有历史罕见洪水记载、流域断面洪水警戒水位和自动站记载的近年几次小洪水过程，采用统计分析方法确定雨-洪关系，得到致灾临界雨量；再应用淹没模型模拟洪水淹没情况，得到洪水的风险等级评估。通过对历史特大山洪个例的淹没反演，可以看到由数理统计与淹没模型相结合的方法确定出的山洪风险等级，与实际情况基本相符。由于洪水记载和考察资料，往往对洪水淹没的高度记录准确，而对发生的具体时间通常是模糊的，本文得到的临界雨量指标是否能够预见洪水需要实例检验。通过2012年前汛期强降水过程的检验，虽然预警了低风险洪水事件，但是风险发生时间有差异，经过合理调整低风险临界雨量，满足了能够预见洪水的目的。对于其他等级的临界雨量的检验，有待于日后更多的实例，进行合理的调整，逐步完善翠江流域的山洪临界雨量指标。
제본문침대유수위자료，단몰유류량관측적류역，동시우유역사한견홍수기재、류역단면홍수경계수위화자동참기재적근년궤차소홍수과정，채용통계분석방법학정우-홍관계，득도치재림계우량；재응용엄몰모형모의홍수엄몰정황，득도홍수적풍험등급평고。통과대역사특대산홍개례적엄몰반연，가이간도유수리통계여엄몰모형상결합적방법학정출적산홍풍험등급，여실제정황기본상부。유우홍수기재화고찰자료，왕왕대홍수엄몰적고도기록준학，이대발생적구체시간통상시모호적，본문득도적림계우량지표시부능구예견홍수수요실례검험。통과2012년전신기강강수과정적검험，수연예경료저풍험홍수사건，단시풍험발생시간유차이，경과합리조정저풍험림계우량，만족료능구예견홍수적목적。대우기타등급적림계우량적검험，유대우일후경다적실례，진행합리적조정，축보완선취강류역적산홍림계우량지표。
This paper focuses on critical hazard rainfall of valleys that only has water level records but no water flow records.After statistically analysing the water stage data and the rainfall data during floods of recent years,this paper gets the relationship between rainfall and floods.With this relationship and water level records of historical floods,the critical hazard rainfall of valleys is obtained.Furthermore,this paper estimates the risk levels of each critical rainfall by simulating submergence with submergence model.By contrasting the simulated result to history records of some serious floods,the rainfall threshold got from statistic is proved to be reasonable.Due to the clear submerging depth and blurry occurrence time of flood records,the rainfall threshold obtained still needs to be verified.Although the occurring time of the esti-mated hazards disaccords with reality,the low-level risk rainfall threshold got verified in rainy season of 2012.It can be used to predict a low-risk rainfall flood by lowering the risk critical rainfall reasonably.For other levels of risk rainfall,verification is very necessary once new flood examples are collected.