CAJ | 학술논문

提比较了欧氏距离、相似离度、相似系数、相关系数及最优相似系数等作为气象格点场相似性度量的适用性，结果发现以“距离”为主的算法无法准确地反映环境场中的一些特定系统的位置和强度，相似检索效果较差；而相似离度、相似系数、相关系数及最优相似系数可分别考虑两个场之间的形状和强度、空间分布及变化趋势，能找到较相似的场，可供业务参考。通过将不同指标检索到的相似环境场的演变对热带气旋（Tropical Cyclone，TC）路径的影响量引入到TC路径预报中，检验其业务应用效果，发现单纯移向的预报效果好于路径预报，路径预报中相似离度的效果稍好于其他方法，而移向预报中最优系数法最好。另通过相似环境场检索，能找到由相似环境场所对应的相似历史TC，并依据不同度量性指标得到一个历史相似TC集，为台风业务、科研提供参考。
제비교료구씨거리、상사리도、상사계수、상관계수급최우상사계수등작위기상격점장상사성도량적괄용성，결과발현이“거리”위주적산법무법준학지반영배경장중적일사특정계통적위치화강도，상사검색효과교차；이상사리도、상사계수、상관계수급최우상사계수가분별고필량개장지간적형상화강도、공간분포급변화추세，능조도교상사적장，가공업무삼고。통과장불동지표검색도적상사배경장적연변대열대기선（Tropical Cyclone，TC）로경적영향량인입도TC로경예보중，검험기업무응용효과，발현단순이향적예보효과호우로경예보，로경예보중상사리도적효과초호우기타방법，이이향예보중최우계수법최호。령통과상사배경장검색，능조도유상사배경장소대응적상사역사TC，병의거불동도량성지표득도일개역사상사TC집，위태풍업무、과연제공삼고。
In this paper the suitability of Euclidean distance,similar disparity,similarity coefficient,corre-lation coefficient and best similarity coefficient used as a similarity measure in meteorological grid dataset is discussed.The results show that some special systems’position and intensity cannot be expressed correct-ly by distance algorithm.But using similar disparity,similarity coefficient,correlation coefficient and best similarity coefficient,two meteorological grid datasets’spatial distribution and the change trend are con-sidered separately,so the similar ambient field can be found in the long history dataset,which can be ap-plied in operation.In order to evaluate the similarity measures’operational application,the similar ambi-ent field corresponding to tropical cyclone (TC)track’s motion quantity is referenced in current source TC track forecast.The results show that 24h moving direction forecast accuracy is better than that of 24h track forecast and the similar disparity is better than other algorithm in track forecast,but the best similar-ity coefficient is better than other algorithm in moving direction forecast.By the query of similar ambient field,a similar TC ensemble corresponding to similar ambient field is found,which can be referenced in TC operational,forecast or research.