CAJ | 학술논문

现阶段，我国货币供应量已远大于国内生产总值，“货币超发”再次成为国内学者激烈讨论的话题之一。仅凭M2/GDP的高比值不能判断货币是否超发，而物价水平与M2紧密相关，因此，从M2的形成角度，分析M2的构成及其影响因素。实证结果显示，信贷规模和外汇储备是当前影响货币供应量的两大关键因素。因此，控制信贷规模和外汇储备量，实现二者的综合平衡，才会最大限度地避免可能出现的“货币超发”。
현계단，아국화폐공응량이원대우국내생산총치，“화폐초발”재차성위국내학자격렬토론적화제지일。부빙M2/GDP적고비치불능판단화폐시부초발，이물개수평여M2긴밀상관，인차，종M2적형성각도，분석M2적구성급기영향인소。실증결과현시，신대규모화외회저비시당전영향화폐공응량적량대관건인소。인차，공제신대규모화외회저비량，실현이자적종합평형，재회최대한도지피면가능출현적“화폐초발”。
At present, China's broad money supply is much larger than the GDP. The discussion about"money over"once again triggers a boom. The high ratio of M2/GDP alone can not be used to judge whether the Super-currency exists. The price level is closely related to the M2. So from the perspective of M2 formation, this paper analyzes the composition of M2 and its influencing factors. The empirical results show that the size of credit and foreign exchange reserves are the two key factors affecting current money supply. Therefore, maintaining the overall balance of the credit balance of payments and foreign exchange can avoid possible"Currency over"up to the hilt.