CAJ | 학술논문

为了研究经济政策对电力需求的影响，利用智能体响应均衡模型(agents response equilibrium，ARE)构建了经济政策对电力需求影响的模拟系统。介绍ARE模型模拟经济政策对经济和电力需求影响的机理，设计行业、居民、银行、政府和市场智能体(Agent)，描述了智能体的结构及其交互机制，模拟系统能实时输出商品价格曲线和行业产值曲线，专家以此可以分析经济运行情况并调整模型中的政策变量；同时比较减税后经济发展和电力需求的变化，分析了政策变化对行业电力需求的影响，分析结果可为决策者研究经济政策对电力需求的影响提供参考。
위료연구경제정책대전력수구적영향，이용지능체향응균형모형(agents response equilibrium，ARE)구건료경제정책대전력수구영향적모의계통。개소ARE모형모의경제정책대경제화전력수구영향적궤리，설계행업、거민、은행、정부화시장지능체(Agent)，묘술료지능체적결구급기교호궤제，모의계통능실시수출상품개격곡선화행업산치곡선，전가이차가이분석경제운행정황병조정모형중적정책변량；동시비교감세후경제발전화전력수구적변화，분석료정책변화대행업전력수구적영향，분석결과가위결책자연구경제정책대전력수구적영향제공삼고。
To analyze the impact of the economic policy on the electricity demand, the dynamic power simulation system was established based on the agents response equilibrium (ARE) model. This paper introduced the mechanism of the economic policy and designed industry agent, resident agent, bank agent, government agent, and the market agent. The structure of the agents and the interaction principles among them were described. Meanwhile, the simulation system can depict price curves, output value curves of each commodity in the economic system. Experts could adjust the policy in response to the volatility in the economy. Economic operation and electricity demand under tax-cut policy, and the industrial electricity demand change with respect to the policy were studied. The analysis results can provide reference for the decision maker to research the influence of economic policies on electricity demand.