CAJ | 학술논문

基于我国30个省份2003-2011年的CO2排放量数据，利用面板数据的向量自回归方法和脉冲响应方法分析碳排放量与环境规制和造林活动之间的关系。结果表明：30个省份CO2的平均排放量以10.7%的速度逐年上升；不同省份CO2排放量之间的差距不断拉大；环境规制对各省CO2排放量的影响呈现先增后减的趋势；造林活动前期减排作用不明显，但减排效果具有长期性。
기우아국30개성빈2003-2011년적CO2배방량수거，이용면판수거적향량자회귀방법화맥충향응방법분석탄배방량여배경규제화조림활동지간적관계。결과표명：30개성빈CO2적평균배방량이10.7%적속도축년상승；불동성빈CO2배방량지간적차거불단랍대；배경규제대각성CO2배방량적영향정현선증후감적추세；조림활동전기감배작용불명현，단감배효과구유장기성。
Based on the estimation of CO2 emissions of 30 provinces from 2003 to 2011 in China, this paper analyzed the change trend of CO2 emissions with the kernel density estimation method. Meanwhile, the relationship of CO2 emissions, environmental regulation and afforestation activity was also analyzed by using the panel vector autoregression and impulse response method. The results showed that the CO2 emissions of 30 provinces increased by 10.7% year by year from 2003 to 2011; the gap was widening in different provinces; the impact of environmental regulation on CO2 emission presented a trend from increase to decrease; the impact of afforestation activity on CO2 emissions was not obvious but had a long-term effect.