中国血吸虫病防治杂志
中國血吸蟲病防治雜誌
중국혈흡충병방치잡지
CHINESE JOURNAL OF SCHISTOSOMIASIS CONTROL
2014年
2期
137-140,147
,共5页
黄宁波%杨坤%施学文%李红军%周晓农%董兴齐
黃寧波%楊坤%施學文%李紅軍%週曉農%董興齊
황저파%양곤%시학문%리홍군%주효농%동흥제
钉螺%山区%时空分布%尺度%洱源县
釘螺%山區%時空分佈%呎度%洱源縣
정라%산구%시공분포%척도%이원현
Oncomelania hupensis snail%Mountainous area%Spatio-temporal pattern%Scale%Eryuan County
目的:基于贝叶斯模型构建山区钉螺与感染性钉螺的时空分布模型,分析钉螺与感染性钉螺的时空格局变化,识别其在村级水平的时空分布规律。方法利用云南省洱源县2000-2006年的现场钉螺调查与实验室检测数据及村边界等空间数据,采用贝叶斯模型构建村级水平间的钉螺与感染性钉螺时空独立与交互模型,分析钉螺与感染性钉螺的时空格局变化,并识别其时空分布规律。结果钉螺分布时空交互模型和感染性钉螺时空独立模型的拟合优度稍强于其它模型。钉螺时空交互模型的空间相关系数的95%可信区间包括0;感染性钉螺时空独立模型的空间与时间相关系数分别为-0.63和0.28,但95%可信区间包括0,提示钉螺与感染性钉螺村级尺度的空间相关系数与时间相关系数均无统计学意义。结论研究区域的山区钉螺与感染性钉螺在村级间无显著性时空相关性,提示山区钉螺研究应开展更小尺度下的研究。
目的:基于貝葉斯模型構建山區釘螺與感染性釘螺的時空分佈模型,分析釘螺與感染性釘螺的時空格跼變化,識彆其在村級水平的時空分佈規律。方法利用雲南省洱源縣2000-2006年的現場釘螺調查與實驗室檢測數據及村邊界等空間數據,採用貝葉斯模型構建村級水平間的釘螺與感染性釘螺時空獨立與交互模型,分析釘螺與感染性釘螺的時空格跼變化,併識彆其時空分佈規律。結果釘螺分佈時空交互模型和感染性釘螺時空獨立模型的擬閤優度稍彊于其它模型。釘螺時空交互模型的空間相關繫數的95%可信區間包括0;感染性釘螺時空獨立模型的空間與時間相關繫數分彆為-0.63和0.28,但95%可信區間包括0,提示釘螺與感染性釘螺村級呎度的空間相關繫數與時間相關繫數均無統計學意義。結論研究區域的山區釘螺與感染性釘螺在村級間無顯著性時空相關性,提示山區釘螺研究應開展更小呎度下的研究。
목적:기우패협사모형구건산구정라여감염성정라적시공분포모형,분석정라여감염성정라적시공격국변화,식별기재촌급수평적시공분포규률。방법이용운남성이원현2000-2006년적현장정라조사여실험실검측수거급촌변계등공간수거,채용패협사모형구건촌급수평간적정라여감염성정라시공독립여교호모형,분석정라여감염성정라적시공격국변화,병식별기시공분포규률。결과정라분포시공교호모형화감염성정라시공독립모형적의합우도초강우기타모형。정라시공교호모형적공간상관계수적95%가신구간포괄0;감염성정라시공독립모형적공간여시간상관계수분별위-0.63화0.28,단95%가신구간포괄0,제시정라여감염성정라촌급척도적공간상관계수여시간상관계수균무통계학의의。결론연구구역적산구정라여감염성정라재촌급간무현저성시공상관성,제시산구정라연구응개전경소척도하적연구。
Objective To develop a spatio-temporal model of mountainous Oncomelania hupensis snails based on the Bayes-ian model,and to analyze and identify the spatio-temporal pattern at a village scale. Methods The data including the intensity and spatial distribution of live and infected snails from 2000 to 2006 and the village boundary were collected. The independent and interactive spatio-temporal models were established,and then the best fitness model was selected to analyze the spatio-temporal pattern of live and infected snails. Results The interactive model of live snails and the independent model of infected snails were relative fitness models,and the models showed 95%CI(confidence interval)of the spatial and temporal coefficient included ze-ro,and indicated that the spatial and temporal correlation of live and infected snails was not significant at a village scale. Conclu-sion There is no significant spatial and temporal correlation of live and infected mountainous snails at a village scale,and the fur-thermore study should be carried out at a small scale.