南京信息工程大学学报
南京信息工程大學學報
남경신식공정대학학보
JOURNAL OF NANJING UNIVERSITY OF INFORMATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
2013年
6期
494-500
,共7页
气候变暖%采暖能耗%影响%预估
氣候變暖%採暖能耗%影響%預估
기후변난%채난능모%영향%예고
climate warming%heating energy consumptions%influence%prediction
利用1961-2010年青海高原34个气象台站逐日平均气温资料,研究了气候变暖对青海采暖期能耗的影响及预测模型,并根据未来气候情景,对未来青海高原采暖能耗进行了预估.结果表明:青海高原自1998年开始呈显著增暖趋势,气候变暖后全省平均采暖期缩短9 d,各地采暖度日数普遍减少,尤以青海高原西南部减幅最大,采暖强度明显减弱.理论上由气候变暖导致的青海高原地区采暖耗能降低4?9%~15?3%,全省平均单位面积可节约标煤量1?79 kg/m2.未来温室气体中等排放( SRESA1B)情景下,全省采暖能耗将明显减少,但仍具有较大的不确定性.
利用1961-2010年青海高原34箇氣象檯站逐日平均氣溫資料,研究瞭氣候變暖對青海採暖期能耗的影響及預測模型,併根據未來氣候情景,對未來青海高原採暖能耗進行瞭預估.結果錶明:青海高原自1998年開始呈顯著增暖趨勢,氣候變暖後全省平均採暖期縮短9 d,各地採暖度日數普遍減少,尤以青海高原西南部減幅最大,採暖彊度明顯減弱.理論上由氣候變暖導緻的青海高原地區採暖耗能降低4?9%~15?3%,全省平均單位麵積可節約標煤量1?79 kg/m2.未來溫室氣體中等排放( SRESA1B)情景下,全省採暖能耗將明顯減少,但仍具有較大的不確定性.
이용1961-2010년청해고원34개기상태참축일평균기온자료,연구료기후변난대청해채난기능모적영향급예측모형,병근거미래기후정경,대미래청해고원채난능모진행료예고.결과표명:청해고원자1998년개시정현저증난추세,기후변난후전성평균채난기축단9 d,각지채난도일수보편감소,우이청해고원서남부감폭최대,채난강도명현감약.이론상유기후변난도치적청해고원지구채난모능강저4?9%~15?3%,전성평균단위면적가절약표매량1?79 kg/m2.미래온실기체중등배방( SRESA1B)정경하,전성채난능모장명현감소,단잉구유교대적불학정성.
The impact of climate warming on energy consumed during heating period in Qinghai plateau during the past 50 years is studied in this paper,based on daily mean temperature data from 34 stations during 1961-2010. A model is established to predict the future heating energy consumption under medium greenhouse gas emission sce-nario (SRESA1B). Results show a significant warming trend took place in Qinghai plateau since 1998,and the av-erage heating periods decreased by 9 days for the whole province. The heating degree-day decreased in all parts,es-pecially in southwestern part of the province, with evident decline in heating strength. Theoretically, the heating strength decrease brought by climate warming is assumed to be 4?9%-15?3%,while the average energy saving in the whole province is 1?79 kg/m2 in standard coal. Under the medium greenhouse gas emission scenario (SRESA1B),the energy consumed during heating periods in future is predicted to decline obviously in Qinghai plateau,yet with great uncertainty.