CAJ | 학술논문

为实现对近岸海域水环境质量状况的早期预警，构建了近海水环境早期预警模型。首先在布点优化过程中，提出了模糊物元分析法与 k-means 空间聚类算法相结合的方法，以突出区域监测站位的水环境状态特征，同时兼顾监测站位的空间地理位置等因素；其次，采用突变级数法，以分叉集方程的归一化公式，计算优化监测站位的水环境质量突变状态值，避免了模型中的人为赋值等不确定因素。应用所建模型，选择江苏近海水环境为实例进行预警分析，结果表明，各站位的预警值与水质评价结果一致，验证了模型的合理性。
위실현대근안해역수배경질량상황적조기예경，구건료근해수배경조기예경모형。수선재포점우화과정중，제출료모호물원분석법여 k-means 공간취류산법상결합적방법，이돌출구역감측참위적수배경상태특정，동시겸고감측참위적공간지리위치등인소；기차，채용돌변급수법，이분차집방정적귀일화공식，계산우화감측참위적수배경질량돌변상태치，피면료모형중적인위부치등불학정인소。응용소건모형，선택강소근해수배경위실례진행예경분석，결과표명，각참위적예경치여수질평개결과일치，험증료모형적합이성。
To achieve early warning of water quality status in coastal ocean,the early warning model of coastal water environment was established.Firstly,the fussy matter-element method combined with k-means clustering algorithm was proposed in the stationing optimization.By this method,the state of wa-ter environment feature in the regional monitoring stations was highlighted,and the space location of the monitoring stations was also considered.Secondly,the catastrophe progression method was adopted.The quality mutation status values of water environment of the optimized monitoring stations were calculated by the normalization assessment of bifurcate equation.Thus,the uncertainty factors such as artificial as-signment can be avoided,and the accuracy of the warning results is improved.Finally,the model was ap-plied to the water environment warning of Jiangsu coastal zone,and the rationality and the feasibility of the model are verified.