CAJ | 학술논문

在自由飞行下，飞机的碰撞风险与通信导航监视（ CNS）定位误差、机载防撞系统可靠性等因素有关。 CNS引起的定位误差可视为正态分布，以机载防撞系统告警区为界，在告警区外飞机视为匀速，相对距离视为一般维纳过程；在告警区内飞机为避撞进行航迹和速度调整，视为变速，相对距离视为伊藤过程。根据此相对运动特点，建立了基于维纳过程的分段碰撞概率模型，并对不同初始状态时的情形进行求解。算例结果表明了模型的可行性。
재자유비행하，비궤적팽당풍험여통신도항감시（ CNS）정위오차、궤재방당계통가고성등인소유관。 CNS인기적정위오차가시위정태분포，이궤재방당계통고경구위계，재고경구외비궤시위균속，상대거리시위일반유납과정；재고경구내비궤위피당진행항적화속도조정，시위변속，상대거리시위이등과정。근거차상대운동특점，건립료기우유납과정적분단팽당개솔모형，병대불동초시상태시적정형진행구해。산례결과표명료모형적가행성。
In free flight ,the aircraft collision risk is mostly due to the positioning error of communication , navigation and surveillance ( CNS) ,and the reliability of airborne collision avoidance system ,which is u-sually TCASⅡ.With CNS positioning errors regarded as normal distribution and the warning area of TCASⅡused as the boundary ,aircrafts outside the warning area deem uniform ,and the relative distance is regarded as the general Wiener process;the aircrafts inside the area ,as to avoid collision ,will adjust the tracks and speeds ,thus the motion is variable motion ,and the relative distance follow Ito process .Accord-ingly,a model of collision risk based on piecewise Wiener process is established and calculated under many different initial states .The results show the feasibility of the model .