CAJ | 학술논문

为开展内陆地区台风强降水灾害预评估业务，建立了具有可操作性的台风强降水灾害预评估模型，该模型根据台风对内陆地区的不利影响主要以强降水形式出现的特点，以江西为例，根据登陆后的台风路径预报结果，利用降水随海拔高度递增原理预测过程降水量级，建立了台风过程强降水量级预评估模型；考虑了孕灾环境、承灾体易损性等因素，通过强降水与灾害损失间的统计关系构建台风灾害预评估模型。结合地形地貌、社会经济等数据，在GIS软件平台下实现精度为1 km的格点灾害损失预测，制作台风强降水灾害预评估业务产品。并利用该技术在2007年第9号台风“圣帕”影响期间进行了业务实践，取得了较好的效果。
위개전내륙지구태풍강강수재해예평고업무，건립료구유가조작성적태풍강강수재해예평고모형，해모형근거태풍대내륙지구적불리영향주요이강강수형식출현적특점，이강서위례，근거등륙후적태풍로경예보결과，이용강수수해발고도체증원리예측과정강수량급，건립료태풍과정강강수량급예평고모형；고필료잉재배경、승재체역손성등인소，통과강강수여재해손실간적통계관계구건태풍재해예평고모형。결합지형지모、사회경제등수거，재GIS연건평태하실현정도위1 km적격점재해손실예측，제작태풍강강수재해예평고업무산품。병이용해기술재2007년제9호태풍“골파”영향기간진행료업무실천，취득료교호적효과。
In order to carry out the business of pre -evaluating the influence of typhoon heavy rainfall disaster on inland area , according to the characteristic that the main negative influence of typhoon on inland area was heavy rainfall , we built the operable pre-evaluation model about the grade of heavy rainfall in the process of typhoon in Jiangxi .This model could predict the grade of heavy rainfall in the process of typhoon based on the principle which the rainfall gradually increases as the altitude rises , as well as the results of forecasting typhoon track after disembarking .Under the consideration of some factors such as the hazard -inducing en-vironment, vulnerability of hazard -affected body and so on , the pre-evaluation model about the typhoon damage was established through the statistical relationship between heavy rainfall and loss caused by the disaster .According to the data of landform , society and economy , the business product of typhoon heavy rainfall disaster pre -evaluation was manufactured , and it could realize the forecast of disaster loss in 1-km resolution grid based on GIS .The technology was carried out during the impact of typhoon No .9 (Sepat) in 2007, and better effect was acquired .