CAJ | 학술논문

文章在界定现代服务业内涵的基础上，借助VAR模型，对浙江省1990-2011年临港现代服务业的四个方面与港口吞吐能力之间的关系进行格兰杰因果检验和方差分解；通过Johansen协整检验，得出向量误差修正模型（VEC）和影响港口吞吐能力的格兰杰因果关系图，并分析了不同要素对港口吞吐能力的影响程度和响应时间，以及短期波动偏离长期均衡时将非均衡状态调回均衡状态的调整力度。
문장재계정현대복무업내함적기출상，차조VAR모형，대절강성1990-2011년림항현대복무업적사개방면여항구탄토능력지간적관계진행격란걸인과검험화방차분해；통과Johansen협정검험，득출향량오차수정모형（VEC）화영향항구탄토능력적격란걸인과관계도，병분석료불동요소대항구탄토능력적영향정도화향응시간，이급단기파동편리장기균형시장비균형상태조회균형상태적조정력도。
Based on the definition of modern service industry and with the VAR model , this article made a Granger causality test and variance decomposition of the relationship between port service industry and port handling capacity in Zhejiang Province from 1990 to 2011from four aspects. By means of the Johansen’s cointegration test, vector error correction model (VEC) and the chart about Granger causality of port capacity chart was derived. This article analyzed the impact of the different elements of the harbor capacity and response time, as well as short-term fluctuations deviating from the long-run equilibrium when the non-equilibrium state was transferred back to the readjustment of equilibrium.